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Decrepit oil tankers in Iran\u2019s sanctions-busting shadow fleet are a \u201cticking time bomb\u201d, with a catastrophic environmental disaster only a \u201cmatter of time\u201d, maritime intelligence analysts have warned.<\/p>\n
Such an oil spill could be far bigger than the 1989 Exxon Valdez disaster<\/a> that released 37,000 tonnes of crude oil into the sea, they said.<\/p>\n Pole Star Global<\/a> assessed 29 Iranian vessels that went dark by switching off their satellite identification systems after the US first seized a Venezuelan tanker<\/a> in December. Half were older than the 20-year recommended safe service life, the analysts said, and because they operate in the shadows, they are believed to be poorly maintained and could fail to meet international safety standards.<\/p>\n More than 50 incidents<\/a> involving shadow tankers from across the world have been reported in recent years, from collisions to oil spills. Nine oil slicks<\/a>, from Thailand to Italy to Mexico, were attributed to Russian dark fleet vessels between 2021 to 2024. But the Iranian shadow fleet has been little scrutinised.<\/p>\n The new analysis placed seven of the 29 vessels in an \u201cextreme risk\u201d category, being over 25 years old, while three were more than 30 years old. Five vessels were both ageing and in the \u201cvery large crude carrier\u201d class, able to hold about 300,000 tonnes of oil.<\/p>\n Shadow fleet tankers were usually uninsured, the analysts said, meaning that the cost of cleaning up a spill would fall on the country where the disaster occurred. That cost could be between $860m and $1.6bn, according to a recent estimate<\/a>.<\/p>\n The total dark fleet of oil tankers is estimated to number many hundreds of vessels, with some assessments suggesting they comprise 17% of the global tanker fleet. Russia has the largest shadow fleet and two ageing Russian tankers caused a major spill in the Black Sea<\/a> in December 2024 after one sank and other ran aground.<\/p>\n