Meanwhile, another tanker with 200,000 barrels of Russian fuel \u2013 the Sea Horse \u2013 has been floating in the Atlantic. As the Anatoly Kolodkin arrived in Cuba, the Sea Horse moved to Venezuela, whose government since the US abduction of Nicol\u00e1s Maduro has been keen to appease Trump\u2019s demands. The choreography suggested the oil shipments were a series of carrots being offered to the Cuban government.<\/p>\n
While no amount of oil or pressure seems likely to encourage the Cuban regime to give up the power it has held since 1959, other events over the last week suggest a more transactional way forward.<\/p>\n
Since they were first permitted by the government in 2021, Cuba has become home to more than 10,000 small to medium-sized private businesses, called Mipymes. They are apparent in the small corner stores across the island, but also in the big container lorries running down the highways.<\/p>\n
The Mipymes have created a group of very wealthy Cubans, many with links to the regime and Gaesa, the army\u2019s economic wing which controls large swathes of the economy. Ra\u00fal Guillermo Rodr\u00edguez Castro, who has been at the front of negotiations with the US, is not only the grandson of former president Ra\u00fal Castro, but also the son of the former head of Gaesa, Luis Rodr\u00edguez L\u00f3pez-Calleja, who died in 2022.<\/p>\n
This week CNN interviewed another member of the Castro family, Fidel\u2019s grandson Sandro Castro. Sandro is a 33-year-old influencer, often treated by Cubans with exasperation for the bling lifestyle he projects, but diplomats say he is also a successful businessman and importer.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are many people here who want to do capitalism with sovereignty. I think the majority of Cubans want to be capitalist, not communist,\u201d he told CNN.<\/p>\n
Normally such a statement \u2013 let alone his subsequent opining that the current Cuban president, Miguel D\u00edaz-Canel, \u201cis not doing a good job\u201d \u2013 would have earned the speaker a visit from state security. But it seems not in this case. D\u00edaz-Canel\u2019s political defenestration has been touted by the US as one of the prices for negotiations to go forward.<\/p>\n
So perhaps a route forward is forming where Cuba\u2019s economy would open up, while senior members of the regime, including several Castros, retain power and influence. That would conform with Trump\u2019s statement that he wanted a \u201cfriendly\u201d takeover of Cuba, mirror events in Venezuela and \u2013 as Iran continues to frustrate his hopes of an easy victory \u2013 give him a win.<\/p>\nCubans on electric tricycles decorated with Cuban flags ride past the US embassy during the anti-imperialist youth march in Havana on Thursday.<\/span> Photograph: Yamil Lage\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\u201cAt the moment, it is this smallish group who is making all the money,\u201d said another senior diplomat in Havana. \u201cIf the Americans are saying, \u2018you can keep your businesses, but you need to open the economy up to the US too,\u2019 then I can see that happening.\u201d<\/p>\n
How that would sit with Marco Rubio, Trump\u2019s Cuban-American secretary of state, who has long expressed his commitment to unseating the Castros, remains to be seen. \u201cI suspect the hardliners in Miami would have a hard time accepting anyone named Castro in a position of authority,\u201d said Pedro Freyre, a Miami attorney at the heart of the exile community. \u201cBut while the Castro name carries a heavy historical load, it may prove difficult to dislodge. D\u00edaz-Canel is a leader by consensus without deep historical connections, which make him easier to move around.\u201d<\/p>\n
More worryingly is where such a deal would leave the roughly 40% of Cubans who do not work for the private sector or receive money from relatives abroad. These people are often elderly and gave their lives to a revolution that promised to look after them from cradle to grave. The answer is probably nowhere good: they are now on the edge of starvation.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
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