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Labour has been winning in elections in Wales for more than a century – and\u00a0if the polls are anything to go\u00a0by, this\u00a0will\u00a0change in\u00a0the Senedd elections\u00a0in\u00a0May.\u00a0<\/p>\n
A new voting system and an electorate hungry for change means for the first time in Wales, polls suggest voters no longer want Labour in power.<\/p>\n
But a new and clear pattern is emerging in the polls. Once dominant, Labour is now fighting for third with the Greens, while Plaid Cymru and Reform UK compete for first place.<\/p>\n
The most recent ITV YouGov poll speaks to this trend: Plaid Cymru is in first place with 33% – securing an estimated 43 seats, six short of a majority. Reform UK follows on 27%, with Welsh Labour down to 13%.<\/p>\n
If polling is accurate, Plaid leader Rhun ap Iorwerth could be Wales’s first non-Labour First Minister. The Welsh Labour red rose superseded by the Plaid Cymru daffodil.<\/p>\n
But the polls do not indicate an overall majority for Plaid Cymru. No party has ever secured one in Cardiff Bay since devolution, and the new voting system makes that outcome even less likely this time.<\/p>\n
Mr ap Iorwerth previously told Sky News he would run a minority government. Plaid Cymru sources told Sky News the party has sought advice from the SNP after they took over government from Scottish Labour in 2007.<\/p>\n
Unless Plaid secures a majority, which is unlikely, the party will need to rely on support from opposition parties to get its ambitions into law.<\/p>\n
Could the Green Party be Plaid Cymru’s secret weapon? The polls indicate that.<\/p>\n