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There will be no \u201cmass exodus\u201d of ships through the strait of Hormuz, according to shipping analysts, despite the agreement of a two-week conditional ceasefire<\/a> between the US and Iran and provisions for a temporary reopening of the crucial maritime channel.<\/p>\n The ceasefire agreement \u201cdoesn\u2019t change the situation in the sense that Iran<\/a> is still in control,\u201d said Richard Meade, the editor-in-chief at maritime data provider Lloyd\u2019s List Intelligence. \u201cIt still requires ships to essentially seek permission, and that\u2019s the key. That means that nothing has changed \u2013 no permission, no transit.\u201d<\/p>\n An estimated 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the outbreak of war at the end of February, according to the UN, unable to pass through the strait to continue their journeys.<\/p>\n <\/gu-island><\/p>\n The trapped vessels include oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers and cargo ships as well as six tourist cruise liners.<\/p>\n Meade added some captains have been instructed by the ship owners to carry out safety checks in readiness for a possible departure.<\/p>\n However, he said large numbers of vessels are unlikely to start moving out of the Gulf until they are certain that they can do so safely: \u201cWe probably need to temper expectations of there being a mass exodus immediately. Until ship owners have got some sort of detail in terms of what\u2019s required of them [to exit the strait] they are basically going to be waiting to see what happens,\u201d he said. \u201cAt the moment we\u2019re seeing nothing to indicate that what was in place yesterday has changed.\u201d<\/p>\n Under Iran\u2019s 10-point ceasefire plan<\/a>, the country\u2019s foreign minister said safe passage through the strait would be allowed under Iranian military management.<\/p>\n This would mark a continuation of Tehran\u2019s previous traffic control system<\/a>, where it granted passage to \u201cnon-hostile vessels\u201d \u2013 which it determined to be those not belonging to or having links to the US or Israel.<\/p>\n A small number of ships have passed each day through the chokepoint \u2013 just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point \u2013 in recent weeks, but this has represented a tiny proportion of the pre-war daily average of some 140 crossings.<\/p>\n The plan also permits Iran and Oman<\/a> to charge a fee of up to $2m (\u00a31.5m) a ship on vessels transiting through the strait, according to reports.<\/p>\n Since the start of the war the vast majority of vessels have remained anchored in the Gulf to ensure the safety of the vessel and the crew, after attacks on more than 20 ships<\/a> across the region and the deaths of several crew members.<\/p>\n The head of the UN shipping agency, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) welcomed the ceasefire and called for a safe evacuation of seafarers from the Gulf.<\/p>\n Arsenio Dominguez, the secretary-general of the IMO, said: \u201cI am already working with the relevant parties to implement an appropriate mechanism to ensure the safe transit of ships through the strait of Hormuz. The priority now is to ensure an evacuation that guarantees the safety of navigation.\u201d<\/p>\n The number of vessels transiting the strait had increased slightly in the days prior to the ceasefire, although this was partly a result of more transits from ships with cargoes linked to Iran.<\/p>\n The ships which have been moving have followed the new maritime route that has emerged during the conflict, which differs from the standard commercial lanes used before the war.<\/p>\n