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At first glance, the results of Hungary\u2019s parliamentary elections<\/a> on April 12 look done and dusted. Outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban<\/a> seems certain to lose: he is languishing in the polls and trailing behind MEP and Tisza Party leader Peter Magyar, who launched his anti-establishment movement in the spring of 2024.<\/p>\n But although the populist and nationalist leader, who has ruled Hungary<\/a> unchallenged for the past 16 years, might appear to be struggling, he also has a number of assets up his sleeve.<\/p>\n The first of these is a mixed electoral system tailor-made to benefit his far-right Fidesz party. In 2011,\u00a0backed by a two-thirds majority, Orban pushed through a controversial law reducing the number of seats in parliament, as well as redrawing electoral districts designed to maximise the conservative party\u2019s chances.<\/p>\n Read more<\/span>Europe’s future on the ballot? Hungary’s Orban in tight re-election race<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cThis gerrymandering has become a bona fide national pastime,\u201d said Paul Gradvohl, a Central Europe history professor at Paris 1 Panth\u00e9on-Sorbonne University, with a hint of irony.<\/p>\n \u201cThe aim is to use the results of previous elections to take from Peter to give to Paul. In constituencies where Fidesz won by a large margin, less supportive districts have been added, and in return, the opposition has been stripped of seats where it had a chance of winning.\u201d<\/p>\n Indeed, the majority of Hungary\u2019s parliamentary seats are decided in these local elections. Of the 199 seats up for grabs, 106 MPs are elected in single-member districts using a first-past-the-post system. The remaining 93 are chosen by proportional representation based on national party lists.<\/p>\n Even if Magyar wins in the major cities and receives more votes nationally, Orban can still win in the countryside \u2013 his rural base and heartland \u2013 where the majority of districts are concentrated.<\/p>\n Furthermore, Hungary\u2019s electoral reforms also introduced the winner\u2019s compensation, a mechanism that enabled Orban to win a comfortable two-thirds majority in the last three elections.<\/p>\n In this way in 2022, Fidesz won 135 out of 199 seats with just 54% of the vote.<\/p>\n Orban also controls \u2013 directly or indirectly \u2013 most of the country\u2019s media. The state media is largely a government mouthpiece while hundreds of private media outlets are controlled by Orban\u2019s inner circle, leaving his opponents with just scraps of airtime. Most of the country\u2019s independent media has been suffocated.<\/p>\n His sprawling propaganda<\/a> machine would not hesitate to dip into public funds to finance his campaign, notably by funding billboards with taxpayer money.<\/p>\n In the run-up to the vote, voters could also be mobilised by the government\u2019s powerful patronage networks, run by Fidesz party allies.<\/p>\n As he faces the fight of his political life, the question of whether these levers \u2013 the tailor-made electoral system, control of the media and patronage networks \u2013 will be enough to keep Orban in power remains to be seen.<\/p>\n Read more<\/span>Why Viktor Orban wants energy prices at the heart of Hungary\u2019s elections<\/a><\/p>\n For Hungarian voters are far more concerned with inflation, corruption<\/a>, and the poor state of public services than they are about migrants, the European Union<\/a>, or the LGBT+ community \u2013 some of Fidesz\u2019s favourite campaign targets. \u00a0<\/p>\n Orban has also escalated his anti-Ukraine rhetoric during his campaign, repeatedly accusing Kyiv of trying to drag Hungary into the war.<\/p>\n Tensions between the two neighbours intensified when Russian oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline \u2013 via which Russian oil transits to Hungary through Ukraine<\/a> \u2013 were halted in late January.<\/p>\n Kyiv claimed the pipeline was damaged by Russian strikes, while Budapest accused Kyiv of deliberately delaying repairs. Orban retaliated by blocking a \u20ac90 billion EU loan to Ukraine.<\/p>\n But four years into Russia\u2019s invasion of Ukraine, anti-Kyiv rhetoric now has far less traction in Hungary.<\/p>\n And Moscow\u2019s attempts at election interference on social media have been much less effective than in Romania<\/a> and Moldova<\/a>, according to Gradvohl.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Magyar\u2019s popularity has soared to new heights, making him the most formidable opponent that Orban has ever faced.<\/p>\n \u201cA documentary about Peter Magyar recently enjoyed incredible success, selling 300,000 tickets at the box office. On YouTube, it garnered 3.3 million views, giving indications that go beyond the logic of the polls,\u201d Gradvohl noted, adding that \u201cthe conditions are ripe\u201d for the opposition to win.<\/p>\n Even if Magyar wins on Sunday, he will likely meet with challenges from the Orban camp: requests for recounts in certain districts, allegations of fraud, legal challenges \u2013 similar tactics to those deployed by his MAGA allies after Donald Trump\u2019s 2020 defeat by Joe Biden.<\/p>\n \u201cHungary\u2019s institutional architecture has numerous tools for implementing such strategies: a politically compliant Constitutional Court, loyalists in key positions, and a carefully rigged legal framework,\u201d said Hungarian researcher Tibor Dessewffy in\u00a0an op-ed published in French daily Le Monde.<\/u><\/a><\/p>\n \u201cEveryone knows this, and everyone is ready,\u201d said Gradvohl, who also believes that Orban will declare a \u201csuper state of emergency\u201d to delay any transfer of power.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s important to understand that we\u2019re dealing with people so dishonest that my imagination isn\u2019t wild enough to guess what they might next conjure up,\u201d Gradvohl concluded.<\/p>\n In the meantime, as the campaign enters its final stretch, Washington on Tuesday dispatched US Vice President JD Vance<\/a> to Budapest to convey Trump\u2019s \u201cfull and total support\u201d for the re-election of his top ally<\/a> in Europe.<\/p>\n Magyar was quick to denounce the fresh attempt at American interference in European elections<\/a>.<\/p>\n \u201cThis is our country,\u201d he wrote on X. \u201cHungarian history is not written in Washington, nor in Moscow, nor in Brussels \u2013 it is written in the streets and squares of Hungary.\u201d<\/p>\n This article has been translated from the original in French<\/a>.\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\nMagyar\u2019s unprecedented popularity<\/strong><\/h2>\n
The \u2018stolen election\u2019 scenario<\/strong><\/h2>\n