{"id":46670,"date":"2026-04-10T12:31:34","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T12:31:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/?p=46670"},"modified":"2026-04-10T12:31:34","modified_gmt":"2026-04-10T12:31:34","slug":"cftc-chair-michael-selig-on-prediction-markets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/?p=46670","title":{"rendered":"CFTC chair Michael Selig on prediction markets"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig wants America to be <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/02\/18\/us-news\/trump-family-unveils-crypto-deals-and-power-plays-at-mar-a-lago-summit-they-created-a-monster\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the hub for prediction markets<\/a>. He also wants the industry to know he is watching every trade.<\/p>\n<p>In a sit-down interview with NYNext at CFTC headquarters in Washington this week, Selig, 36, laid out his vision. The regulator is intent on <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/04\/06\/business\/kalshi-clinches-legal-win-in-new-jersey-case-as-states-fight-to-restrict-prediction-markets\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">keeping prediction markets<\/a> \u2014 which allow users to bet on everything from election outcomes to Oscar winners to oil prices \u2014 safe for traders. He wants to balance innovation and enforcement in the new regulatory framework he is trying to codify<\/p>\n<p>\u201dI want the United States to be the markets capital of the world,\u201d Selig said. \u201cWhether it\u2019s prediction markets, crypto, traditional markets \u2014 if we don\u2019t take leadership there, we\u2019re going to see these markets flourish offshore.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Ironically, Selig, who was sworn in on Dec. 22, 2025, expected to spend his tenure <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/11\/16\/tech\/how-crypto-became-the-biggest-winner-of-trump-2-0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">wrestling with digital assets<\/a> \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/07\/18\/business\/crypto-market-cap-surges-past-4-trillion-on-landmark-genius-act-law\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">e<\/a> to regulate Bitcoin and Ethereum spot markets or overseeing DeFi developers. Instead he has been inundated with something nobody saw coming at scale: prediction markets, and what Washington\u2019s role in regulating them should be.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>CFTC Chair Michael Selig said, \u201dI want the United States to be the markets capital of the world.\u201d <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Prediction markets drew widespread attention during the 2024 election cycle, when <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2024\/10\/31\/business\/kalshis-daring-bet-on-election-betting-is-paying-off\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">platforms such as Kalshi<\/a> and offshore rival Polymarket forecasted a Trump landslide at a time when major polls said the race was a toss-up. Now, Washington is racing to figure out how to regulate an industry that didn\u2019t exist at scale just a few years ago \u2014 and whether the rules are adequate to stop those with inside knowledge from cashing in.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe\u2019re investigating various participants in the markets on a daily basis, we\u2019re working with the exchanges \u2026 and the exchanges have brought several actions now against persons for insider trading and manipulation in their markets,\u201d Selig told NYNext. \u201cWhen we see unusual trading activity ahead of a big event \u2026 the Oscars \u2026 we take action.\u201d<\/p>\n<aside class=\"single__inline-module aligncenter wp-block-nypost-editor-primary-tag\">\n<\/aside>\n<p>Last month, following the Academy Awards, <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/03\/17\/lifestyle\/did-gamblers-on-the-oscars-know-more-than-they-let-on-insiders-are-encouraged-to-show-their-hand-expert\/\">The Post reported<\/a> that some betting on the awards may have had an inside track.<\/p>\n<p>But in recent weeks, Selig has been less concerned with bad actors (or Oscar-winning actors) and more concerned with states.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Last month, the CFTC issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking \u2014 which allows anyone to chime in on whether they think those guidelines are fair. <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The agency filed suit last week against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, which Selig said are \u201ceffectively trying to nullify federal law\u201d by regulating prediction markets as gambling products under state jurisdiction.<\/p>\n<p>He tells me they notched a significant legal win in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday in Philadelphia, where a judge ruled that federal law, not state gaming statutes, governs prediction markets.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-28f84493 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong><em><em>This story is part of <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/ny-next\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NYNext<\/a>, an indispensable insider insight into the innovations, moonshots and political chess moves that matter most to NYC\u2019s power players (and those who aspire to be).<\/em><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p>Last month, the CFTC issued an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking \u2014 which allows anyone to chime in on whether they think those guidelines are fair. The framework has received more than 1,000 comments which the CFTC is working to fold in.<\/p>\n<p>Some proposed rules are obvious red lines. \u201cAn injury contract where a sports player might try to injure another player \u2014 that could be manipulated,\u201d Selig said. Contracts tied to unsportsmanlike conduct calls, assassination, or terrorism would be similarly flagged.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>The CFTC notched a significant legal win in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday in Philadelphia, where a judge ruled that federal law, not state gaming statutes, governs prediction markets. <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>But Selig is clear-eyed about what over-regulation costs. He said the Biden administration \u201cdrove many of these markets offshore\u201d through regulation by enforcement.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUnfortunately \u2026 there was this attempt just to ban these contracts outright and not set real clear guidelines and rules for what\u2019s susceptible to manipulation.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He points to the way music was regulated in the early days of the internet as a way for the US to become the hub for prediction markets.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you think back to the Napster or Spotify versus iTunes saga,\u201d Selig said, \u201cOnce you had clear rules of the road in the United States, once there was a reason to use the more well-regulated and legal platform, everyone started doing that. No one\u2019s using Napster or BitTorrent to get their music anymore. They\u2019re on iTunes or Spotify \u2014 and we expect to see the same with prediction markets.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Kalshi requires every user to upload a government-issued ID and submit to identity verification. All trading activity is reported to the CFTC daily, Kalshi\u2019s head of enforcement, Bobby DeNault, told NYNext. \u00a0 <span class=\"credit\">Bloomberg via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Some critics are worried that Selig may not be aggressive enough and that these markets are inherently predatory.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf you\u2019re going to use inside information to bet on particular stocks, there are a whole bunch of things that can affect the prices of these things,\u201d David Bieri, an economist at Virginia Tech, told NYNext. Bieri argues prediction markets make insider trading uniquely easy because they allow you to bet on a single, discrete event.<\/p>\n<p>Selig believes it\u2019s not the markets but the inability to oversee them in the US that is the problem.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201dThe exchanges have to do KYC (Know your customer) and AML (anti-money laundering) checks on all the traders, so they understand who\u2019s in the markets,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Prediction markets allow users to bet on everything from election outcomes to Oscar winners to oil prices. <span class=\"credit\">GC Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Kalshi requires every user to upload a government-issued ID and submit to identity verification. All trading activity is reported to the CFTC daily, Kalshi\u2019s head of enforcement, Bobby DeNault, told me. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Exchanges that are based and operate overseas, like Polymarket, have no such oversight, which means anonymous crypto wallets with money from anywhere in the world can potentially <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/url?sa=t&amp;source=web&amp;rct=j&amp;opi=89978449&amp;url=https:\/\/nypost.com\/2025\/10\/24\/business\/wealthy-whales-may-be-manipulating-elections-thanks-to-prediction-market-technology\/&amp;ved=2ahUKEwiizaah1uGTAxUnKFkFHU30K5cQFnoECCAQAQ&amp;usg=AOvVaw20nwz18GsQhUp7gABJalDc\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">sway public perception in an election<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Robin Hanson, the George Mason economist who pioneered prediction market theory, believes all of this is ultimately trying to undermine free markets entirely<\/p>\n<figure class=\"nyp-slideshow-modal-image wp-block-image aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption>Exchanges that are based and operate overseas, like Polymarket, have no such oversight, which means anonymous crypto wallets with money from anywhere in the world can potentially sway public perception in an election. <span class=\"credit\">AFP via Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u201cPeople don\u2019t like prediction markets and decided that [highlighting possible] insider trading is the approach to take\u201d to undermine them, he told me.<\/p>\n<p>Insider trading, he argues, is far more rampant elsewhere. \u201cOrdinary markets have insider trading they don\u2019t like to admit [to], and the vast majority of it is never caught.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>He notes that a <a href=\"https:\/\/rady.ucsd.edu\/why\/news\/2025\/03-18-earnings-news-cause-immediate-stock-price-jumps-sometimes-moving-whole-market.html#:~:text=Their%20analysis%20also%20suggests%20that,Moves:Jumps%20after%20Earnings%20Announcements.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">significant amount of price movement<\/a> in a stock happens before a company makes a public announcement, \u201cand that is due to insider trading \u2026 and that is vastly more than the level that is caught.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Not surprisingly, Kalshi makes the same argument. \u201cThe average retail trade on Kalshi is well under $100 \u2026 making it hard to profit meaningfully from inside information without triggering automatic flags,\u201d DeNault said.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAny trading activity that\u2019s abnormally large is going to stand out,\u201d he added. \u201cWe don\u2019t have anybody making those kinds of profits in our market.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Hanson added this is the same debate that always pops up following financial innovation whether it\u2019s insurance, commodity futures, options, or stocks.<\/p>\n<p> \u201cAlmost all financial markets were illegal initially because they were seen as gambling.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2026\/04\/10\/business\/cftc-chair-michael-selig-on-prediction-markets\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig wants America to be the hub for prediction markets. He also wants the industry to know he is watching&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46671,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=46670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/46671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=46670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=46670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=46670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}