\n<\/p>\n
As JD Vance<\/a> arrives in Islamabad to negotiate a peace deal with Iran, his first high-profile assignment of the war looks to be a poisoned chalice.<\/p>\n Vance, a vocal opponent of US wars in the Middle East gone quiet since the beginning of the current military campaign, will now face off with Iranian negotiators who feel emboldened by their new control of the Hormuz strait<\/a> and their resilience in the face of the largest US-Israeli onslaught in history. Vance\u2019s presence at the talks as vice-president will make it the highest-level meeting since the Iranian revolution of 1979.<\/p>\n Vance\u2019s task is straightforward enough: to bridge the gap between a rhetorical ceasefire in serious peril and a more durable peace. But Vance will be face a difficult choice in Islamabad: to either undersign considerable US concessions to Iran<\/a> in order to hold the ceasefire and negotiate the opening of the strait of Hormuz \u2013 or effectively cut off negotiations, personally backing a return to war that is unpopular with the American public.<\/p>\n The results could have a considerable impact on his expected run for the presidency in 2028, where his Maga credentials are already in question for failing to offer a more full-throated opposition to the war. Vance entered office calling for a more restrained foreign policy and an end to US forever wars in the Middle East \u2013 but the negotiations could drag him further into the largest US intervention in the region since the beginning of the Iraq war.<\/p>\n Whether the negotiations will even begin is in question. Israel\u2019s massive strikes on Lebanon and an apparent bait-and-switch over the country\u2019s inclusion in the ceasefire has angered the Iranian leadership. And Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran\u2019s parliamentary speaker and a lead negotiator, said that the US must also furnish the \u201crelease of Iran\u2019s blocked assets\u201d, a condition for talks that the US has not publicly agreed to.<\/p>\n \u201cThese two matters must be fulfilled before negotiations begin,\u201d Ghalibaf said on Friday, less than 24 hours after the negotiations in Islamabad were due to begin.<\/p>\n Those remarks may be the first salvo of what will be a grueling experience for Vance. Tehran\u2019s negotiators are renowned for a long-winded, relentless approach to deal making that Iran\u2019s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, had once called \u201cmarket style\u201d \u2013 meaning \u201ccontinuous and tireless bargaining\u201d. This will be their first chance in history to subject a sitting US vice-president under considerable pressure to cut a deal to that treatment.<\/p>\n Before boarding Air Force Two en route to Pakistan on Friday, Vance said that his negotiating team had received \u201cclear\u201d instructions from Donald Trump on the negotiations, and added: \u201cLet\u2019s see where this goes.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cAs the president of the United States said, if the Iranians are willing to negotiate in good faith, we\u2019re certainly willing to extend the open hand,\u201d Vance told reporters. \u201cIf they\u2019re going to try to play us, then they\u2019re going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive.\u201d<\/p>\n But before the meeting, former US negotiators with Iran said that Tehran\u2019s assumed control of the strait of Hormuz had handed that government a powerful new weapon in negotiations with Washington. And while the US could walk away from the table in Islamabad, it cannot guarantee the free flow of marine traffic from the Persian Gulf, leaving Tehran with key leverage over the White House, as fuel shortages and a supply chain crisis could rock the global economy this summer.<\/p>\n