{"id":47573,"date":"2026-04-11T11:23:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T11:23:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/?p=47573"},"modified":"2026-04-11T11:23:07","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T11:23:07","slug":"an-orban-loss-in-hungarys-election-could-be-the-turning-point-putin-fears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/?p=47573","title":{"rendered":"An Orban loss in Hungary\u2019s election could be the turning point Putin fears"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>After 16 years in power doing Russia&#8217;s bidding in Brussels, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/tag\/hungary\/\" target=\"_self\">Hungarian<\/a> Prime Minister <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/tag\/viktor-orban\/\" target=\"_self\">Viktor Orban<\/a>\u2019s Fidesz party is at risk of losing power in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/tv-shows\/the-debate\/20260407-europe-s-future-on-the-ballot-hungary-s-orban-in-tight-re-election-race\" target=\"_self\">Sunday&#8217;s parliamentary elections<\/a>, with challenger Peter Magyar significantly ahead in polls.<\/p>\n<p>The Kremlin appears to have pulled out all the stops to boost its man in Budapest. An internal intelligence report for Russia\u2019s SVR intelligence service revealed in March outlined a strategy dubbed \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2026\/03\/21\/hungary-election-interference-russia-orban\/\" target=\"_blank\">the Gamechanger<\/a>\u201d, which included staging an assassination attempt against Orban to \u201cfundamentally alter the entire paradigm of the election campaign\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The Hungarian campaign has seen a major escalation in interference, including \u201cdocumented influence operations,\u00a0disinformation campaigns\u00a0and reports of intelligence-linked activities\u201d, says Edit Zgut-Przybylska, a research affiliate at the Democracy Institute of the Central European University in Budapest and a specialist on democratic backsliding.<\/p>\n<p>Moscow has also been accused of dispatching a team of election &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/kyivindependent.com\/russia-sending-political-technologists-to-hungary-to-keep-orban-in-power-media-reports\/\" target=\"_blank\">specialists<\/a>&#8221; \u2013 linked to the GRU, Russian military intelligence \u2013 to Budapest to closely monitor these interference operations.<\/p>\n<p>At this point, &#8220;what we are seeing is not interference but the collusion between the Hungarian government and Russia&#8221;, says Anton Shekhovtsov, director of the Center for Democratic Integrity in Austria and an expert on the links between Moscow and Europe&#8217;s far-right parties.<\/p>\n<p>Shekhovtsov noted that US Vice President JD Vance\u2019s joint appearance with Orban in Budapest earlier this week was another attempt by \u201cforeign interests\u201d to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260409-trump-vance-support-for-hungary-s-orban-is-not-meddling-in-upcoming-vote-says-us-envoy\" target=\"_self\">influence the vote<\/a>. Rightwing US President Donald Trump has even promised to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20260410-trump-vows-to-boost-hungary-economy-if-orban-wins-vote\" target=\"_self\">boost Hungary\u2019s economy<\/a> if Orban wins re-election.<\/p>\n<p class=\"a-read-more\"><span class=\"a-read-more__label\">Read more<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260216-ready-govern-former-ally-magyar-challenges-hungary-orban-with-europe-gun\" target=\"_self\" class=\"a-read-more__link\">\u2019Ready to govern\u2019 Hungary: Former ally Magyar challenges Orban with Europe gun<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Putin&#8217;s translator and Moscow\u2019s &#8216;Trojan Horse&#8217;<\/h2>\n<p>The appointment of Daria Boyarskaya, a former interpreter for Russian President Vladimir Putin, to the observer team overseeing the vote for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has come under fire from Hungarian rights groups as well as European lawmakers. An open letter signed by 56 members of the European Parliament last week <a href=\"https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/articles\/european-lawmakers-push-remove-putin-091654688.html\" target=\"_blank\">called for<\/a> Boyarskaya to be removed from the role, citing her ties to Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cRussia has a clear interest in keeping Orban in power, because Hungary has consistently acted as a Trojan Horse of the Kremlin who\u00a0worked against EU decisions on Ukraine and sanctions against Russia,\u201d says Zgut-Przybylska.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Putin\u00a0would lose his &#8220;most loyal and reliable&#8221; partner within the European Union, she says\u00a0\u2013 a position only underscored by the leak last week of a conversation in which Orban said he was ready to help Putin in any way he can.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/at-your-service-hungarys-orban-offered-help-putin-bloomberg-reports-2026-04-07\/\" target=\"_blank\">I am at your service<\/a>,&#8221; he told the Russian president.<\/p>\n<p>Russia has also tried to help Orban leverage the war in neighbouring Ukraine to \u201creframe the election as an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260318-why-viktor-orban-is-vilifying-ukraine-before-crucial-parliamentary-elections\" target=\"_self\">existential choice<\/a> between\u00a0\u2018Peace and stability\u2019 under Fidesz\u00a0and \u2018Chaos and war&#8217; under Tisza\u201d, Zgut-Przybylska says.<\/p>\n<p>But Moscow&#8217;s attempts to sow fear do not appear to have convinced an electorate of disgruntled voters who want the government to do more to help them in their daily lives, including in areas like public education and health care. Opposition challenger Magyar, a former member of Orban&#8217;s Fidesz who advocates a more pro-European policy, is leading by some 10 points in the polls.<\/p>\n<p class=\"a-read-more\"><span class=\"a-read-more__label\">Read more<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260318-why-viktor-orban-is-vilifying-ukraine-before-crucial-parliamentary-elections\" target=\"_self\" class=\"a-read-more__link\">Why Hungary&#8217;s Viktor Orban is vilifying Ukraine before crucial elections<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Incremental change<\/h2>\n<p>Even a win for Tisza would not guarantee that it is able to successfully govern Hungary, observes Shekhovtsov, noting that after 16 years in power, Orban\u2019s party and his allies have made deep inroads into Hungarian political institutions.\u00a0The current prime minister has done everything he can to ensure his allies, political institutions and friendly media outlets outlive him.<\/p>\n<p>But a Magyar win could mean that Hungary \u201cwould begin distancing itself from Russia, though Russian influence would not disappear overnight\u201d, Zgut-Przybylska says. Moscow&#8217;s influence could even ramp up, as the Kremlin might actively \u201cwork to weaken\u201d a new Hungarian government that was looking to normalise relations with the EU.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOf course there will be huge attempts by the Russians to undermine Magyar,\u201d Shekhovtsov agrees, adding that Moscow can also expect continued support from Orban from within Hungary. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>And Russia still has allies in Europe beyond Hungary\u00a0\u2013 notably in rightwing Prime Minister Robert Fico&#8217;s Slovakia\u00a0\u2013 that could continue to undermine pro-Ukraine and pro-European Union policies.<\/p>\n<p>Slovakia would, however, be a weaker replacement as a Russian partner since it is more integrated into the European system and thus has less room for manoeuvre. \u201cSlovakia is part of the eurozone, [so] Fico has more constraints within the EU decision-making system and is less isolated than Hungary,\u201d\u00a0Zgut-Przybylska says.\u00a0<\/p>\n<div class=\"em-video-wrapper m-em-video\" data-media-video-wbmz535563-f24-en-20260407=\"\" data-wrapper-video-player=\"\" data-show-hidden-video-player=\"WBMZ535563-F24-EN-20260407\" data-youtube-script=\"\">\n<p>&#8216;Vladimir Putin absolutely nervous&#8217; about Hungary&#8217;s election, expert says<\/p>\n<div class=\"m-em-video__video\">\n<div class=\"o-em-consent \">\n<div class=\"o-em-consent__content\">\n<p class=\"o-em-consent__content__text\">To display this content from YouTube, you must enable advertisement tracking and audience measurement.<\/p>\n<p>        <button class=\"a-master-button a-master-button--dark\" data-action=\"accept\"><br \/>\n            Accept<br \/>\n                            <svg class=\"a-svg a-svg--icon-check\">\n    <use xlink:href=\"http:\/\/www.france24.com\/build\/images\/svg\/sprite.c98bf387c90bc4a87186b0b783f15ba0.svg#icon-check\" href=\"http:\/\/www.france24.com\/build\/images\/svg\/sprite.c98bf387c90bc4a87186b0b783f15ba0.svg#icon-check\"\/>\n  <\/svg><br \/>\n        <\/button><br \/>\n        <button class=\"a-link\" data-action=\"manage\">Manage my choices<i class=\"a-svg a-svg--icon-edit\"\/><\/button>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"o-em-adblock\" data-adblock-content=\"\">\n<div class=\"o-em-adblock__content\">\n<p class=\"o-em-adblock__content__text\">One of your browser extensions seems to be blocking the video player from loading. To watch this content, you may need to disable it on this site.<\/p>\n<p>            <button class=\"a-master-button a-master-button--dark\" data-action=\"reload\">Try again<\/button>\n    <\/div>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"m-item-image m-item-image--16x9 m-item-image--has-caption\">\n<picture class=\"a-picture a-picture--16x9\"><source type=\"image\/webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/s.france24.com\/media\/display\/336765be-31ef-11f1-90bd-005056a97e36\/w:388\/p:16x9\/EN-20260406-211220-212042-CS.webp 388w,https:\/\/s.france24.com\/media\/display\/336765be-31ef-11f1-90bd-005056a97e36\/w:720\/p:16x9\/EN-20260406-211220-212042-CS.webp 720w,https:\/\/s.france24.com\/media\/display\/336765be-31ef-11f1-90bd-005056a97e36\/w:1024\/p:16x9\/EN-20260406-211220-212042-CS.webp 1024w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 639px) calc(100vw - 32px), (max-width: 1076px) calc(100vw - 44px), 850px\"><br \/>\n<\/source><\/picture><figcaption class=\"a-figcaption\">\n                                <span>\u00a9 France 24<\/span>            <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Russia might still be able to rely on Hungarian help even if Magyar wins. While he has promised a more Russo-sceptical approach, he is unlikely to make a complete break with Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt&#8217;s not good for Russia, but it&#8217;s not a complete catastrophe for them either,\u201d says Michael Toomey, a specialist in populism in Central Europe at the University of Glasgow, of a possible Magyar win.<\/p>\n<p>Slovakia and Hungary have insisted on <a href=\"https:\/\/energywatch.com\/EnergyNews\/Policy___Trading\/article18368155.ece\" target=\"_blank\">retaining access<\/a> to cheap Russian oil and gas, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/slovak-pm-says-eu-should-drop-sanctions-russian-oil-gas-boost-energy-security-2026-04-04\/\" target=\"_blank\">arguing against<\/a> or even\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/hungary-block-loan-ukraine-sanctions-until-druzhba-restarts-minister-says-2026-03-16\/\" target=\"_blank\">blocking\u00a0sanctions<\/a> on Moscow.<\/p>\n<p>Magyar reportedly also wants to ensure access to Russian energy resources.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThere are a lot of structural reasons for Hungary to want to continue to push for access to Russian oil and gas,\u201d Toomey notes. So while Magyar is more likely than Orban to be supportive of Ukraine\u00a0\u2013 and will be \u201cless of a thorn in the side for the EU\u201d\u00a0\u2013 that does not necessarily mean he will always fall into line.<\/p>\n<p>While the EU has called for all member states to end their reliance on Russian energy by 2027, Magyar has already <a href=\"https:\/\/www.epc.eu\/publication\/after-orban-why-peter-magyar-would-not-be-an-easy-partner-for-the-eu\/\" target=\"_blank\">made clear<\/a>\u00a0that Hungary would not be able to do this before 2035.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p class=\"a-read-more\"><span class=\"a-read-more__label\">Read more<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260408-how-orban-benefits-from-hungary-tailor-made-election-system\" target=\"_self\" class=\"a-read-more__link\">How Orban benefits from Hungary&#8217;s tailor-made election system<\/a><\/p>\n<p>No one expects Budapest to cut ties with Moscow, says Shekhovtsov. What is expected, he says, is for Hungary \u201cto be a responsible member of the European Union and follow the line of the European Union on Russia\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>And any real break from Russia can only happen if Tisza secures a comfortable majority in Sunday&#8217;s vote, which would allow it to avoid making significant ideological compromises just to form a government.<\/p>\n<p>If Magyar wins but doesn&#8217;t secure such a majority, Shekhovtsov says, \u201che will have a huge uphill battle to fight\u201d.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>This article has been translated from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/fr\/europe\/20260408-hongrie-l-\u00e9lection-qui-fait-peur-\u00e0-vladimir-poutine\" target=\"_self\">original in French<\/a>. <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/europe\/20260411-hungary-election-magyar-orban-could-mark-turning-point-russia-putin-fears\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After 16 years in power doing Russia&#8217;s bidding in Brussels, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban\u2019s Fidesz party is at risk of losing power in Sunday&#8217;s parliamentary&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":47574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-47573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-europe-russia"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=47573"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/47573\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/47574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=47573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=47573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/foreignnewstoday.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=47573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}