\n<\/p>\n
Lots of ink has already been spilled on the impact of\u00a0Prime Minister Mark Carney\u2019s historic majority: the implications for the Liberal agenda, for House of Commons committees, and for the country. But\u00a0one byelection\u00a0matters more than the others: the riding of Terrebonne,\u00a0which saw Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste score a victory\u00a0in traditional Bloc Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois territory with a 731-vote margin, and which could reshape politics in both Quebec and Ottawa.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n
Auguste\u2019s win was a bad sign not just for the Bloc, but for the Parti Qu\u00e9b\u00e9cois. According to sources in Quebec, the PQ sent lots of ground troops into Terrebonne to bolster the Bloc campaign \u2014 and their candidate still came up short. The result mirrors provincial polls that show the PQ neck and neck with the provincial Liberal party, and its new leader, Charles Milliard. While the two Liberal parties are distinct entities, the loss still stings \u2014 and the timing is bad. \u00a0<\/p>\n
In six months, Quebecers will go to the polls in a provincial election. Until this year, the PQ was leading the field, but now, with new leadership in both the Liberal party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec, voters have shifted. The PQ senses trouble, and is seeking out new markets, notably on the right. Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon recently gave an interview to Rebel News where he played to the provincial Conservative party crowd \u2014 a party that currently counts between 10-15 per cent support, and whose voters could make the difference in rural and exurban ridings.\u00a0<\/p>\n This is music to Carney\u2019s ears: a Liberal win would mean he wouldn\u2019t have to deal with the spectre of another PQ referendum. But the fly in the ointment could be newly minted CAQ leader Christine Fr\u00e9chette. Should she retain 18 per cent support, as her party currently polls, she could deny the Liberal party victory by splitting the federalist \/ centrist vote, to the benefit of the PQ.\u00a0<\/p>\n Then there are the federal Conservatives. Rumours are flying in Quebec about the possibility of local MPs either defecting to the Liberals or simply leaving caucus and sitting as independents. Four names are circulating among Conservative insiders and media in Quebec: Jo\u00ebl Godin, Richard Martel, Eric Lefebvre and Dominique Vien.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n Vien has shut the door on floor crossing, but that\u2019s not the only way out. She would be a great get for Milliard in the provincial election \u2014 she served as a Liberal minister in the governments of Jean Charest and Philippe Couillard from 2010 to 2018, and at 59 might still relish some time on the government benches, which she won\u2019t get in Ottawa. Her departure would mean one less Conservative MP \u2014 and another shot for the Liberals at padding their majority.\u00a0<\/p>\n Godin was absent from the Conservative convention in January, on a trade mission to the Balkans, which set tongues wagging. But sources say he fears too much backlash to change parties.\u00a0As for\u00a0Lefebvre and Martel, speculation is not that they would join Carney, but that they might leave caucus to sit as independents. The reason? To\u00a0force\u00a0caucus to oust\u00a0Conservative Leader\u00a0Pierre Poilievre, after which they could return\u00a0under new management.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n The biggest loser of the night\u00a0may well be\u00a0Pierre Poilievre.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n<\/section>\n The biggest loser of the night\u00a0may well be\u00a0Poilievre.\u00a0In the words of one source, \u201cIf those four go, it\u2019s the end of Pierre.\u201d\u00a0Some Quebec Conservatives are\u00a0also\u00a0puzzled as to why their party chose to run a candidate in Terrebonne at all, rather than help the Bloc defeat the Liberals.\u00a0Had the Liberals lost\u00a0there, at\u00a0least it\u00a0wouldn\u2019t\u00a0look like\u00a0Carney\u00a0is a\u00a0draw\u00a0in Quebec.\u00a0Now,\u00a0it\u2019s\u00a0clear he is.\u00a0<\/p>\n According to Rudy\u00a0Husny, a former Conservative adviser based in Montreal, \u201cWith a Liberal majority until 2029, snap-election fears are gone, and so is the argument that the Conservative leader can\u2019t be\u00a0replaced due to urgency or timing.\u201d\u00a0In other words, Poilievre\u2019s days could be numbered. <\/p>\n Cue the violins,\u00a0or perhaps, the\u00a0violons.<\/p>\n\n