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Phil Jackson had a handy rule for determining the NBA\u2019s real championship contenders well before the playoffs began. Jackson is credited as the creator \u201840-20 rule,\u2019 which states a team has to hit 40 wins before 20 losses in the regular season to have a shot at the title. This rule has held up shockingly well throughout time, with 18 of the last 19 champions and 41 of the last 45 champions fitting into the criteria. Only the the 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, and 2021 Milwaukee Bucks have won an NBA championship without winning 40 games before losing 20 games since the league introduced the three-point line for the 1979-1980 season.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
With the Boston Celtics\u2019 loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, there\u2019s now only three teams that fit Jackson\u2019s \u201840-20 rule\u2019 for this season\u2019s 2026 championship race:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
The Pistons went 14-68 two years ago<\/em>. What\u2019s changed since then? Cade Cunningham started living up to the hype<\/a> as a former No. 1 overall pick, Jalen Duren developed into an All-Star center, and head coach JB Bickerstaff (who replaced Monty Williams after the 14-win season) whipped the defense into the league\u2019s No. 2 unit behind homegrown players like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Ron Holland. Detroit made a big jump to 44 wins last year then had the Knicks sweating in a tough first-round series. Right now, the Pistons are on pace to win 61.5 games this season. It\u2019s simply an incredible turnaround.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The Spurs were always destined to be a contender eventually with Victor Wembanyama, but no one thought it would happen this quickly. Wembanyama hasn\u2019t even played a playoff game yet, but that won\u2019t stop the Spurs from being a popular pick to win it all this year. Wembanyama\u2019s defensive impact is levels beyond any other player alive, and he\u2019s a top-10 offensive player, too. San Antonio put a solid supporting cast around him this year by trading for De\u2019Aaron Fox, signing Luke Kornet in free agency, and rejuvenating Harrison Barnes\u2019 career. The Spurs have proven it\u2019s better to be lucky than good<\/a> by moving up in the lottery three straight years<\/em> for Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. This organization lit two lottery picks on fire in the 2020s with Josh Primo and Jeremy Sochan, but it didn\u2019t even matter because they landed the best prospect ever<\/a> and then moved up into the top-4 of the lottery the next two years.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n The NBA\u2019s problems \u2014 tanking, load management, a typically crappy All-Star Game \u2014 get all of the attention, but the playoffs might be the best product in all of sports right now. This last Super Bowl sucked! Meanwhile, last year\u2019s Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals was amazing, and this year\u2019s title race will be as wide open and competitive as it has ever been. The \u201840-20 rule\u2019 hitting 41 out of 45 years is astounding. If the Pistons, Spurs, or Thunder win it all this year, please remember that Phil Jackson was right again.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n