Mediation<\/a> by the Qataris and the Turks, following the October engagements, did\u00adn\u2019t go well: Pakistan demanded written guarantees; the Afghan Taliban backed off from signing a document and confined themselves to verbal assurances.<\/p>\nThe latest attempt came from the Sau\u00addis themselves. \u201cIt was a positive effort\u201d, according to an official familiar with the efforts by Riyadh to bring about rappro\u00adchement between Islamabad and Kabul, but that too trailed off, predictably.<\/p>\n
The Saudis had presented a draft of a possible agreement, the official said. The Afghan Taliban regime declined to put anything to paper, offering to provide verbal guarantees to rein in the outlawed TTP and other outfits operating from the Afghan soil.<\/p>\n
The Saudis \u2014 like Pakistan, China and Uzbekistan \u2014 have their own respective lists of \u2018individuals of interest\u2019 in Afghanistan, according to the official.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe problem with the Afghans is that they want to negotiate, but they don\u2019t deliver. What is the point of talking when you don\u2019t deliver?\u201d the official asked.<\/p>\n
While the ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan remained largely intact last year, attacks by the TTP and other militant outfits registered a sharp uptick, putting renewed pressure on the already strained relationship between the two neighbours. The recent attacks on security forces triggered another round of response, which was to be expected. Strikes were carried out on what Pakistan insisted were TTP bases in the border region, while the Taliban regime claimed civilians had been targeted.<\/p>\n
But what followed was rather unexpected. Pakistan watched as the Taliban regime amassed its forces in the border regions overnight. It was clear to Islamabad that, this time, it wouldn\u2019t just small arms clashes and skirmishes.<\/p>\n
Policy makers in Islamabad believe they have garnered moral support from the region and internationally, to defend themselves.<\/p>\n
Much like the Taliban, who had publicly threatened to unleash a torrent of suicide bombers in retaliation to any Pakistani strikes, Islamabad made it clear it would target the regime\u2019s military installations next, alongside those of the TTP and others.<\/p>\n
Officials in Pakistan blame the Taliban regime for the escalation. \u201cThey upped the ante. We didn\u2019t. We have lost close to 4,000 people. How much more restraint must one exercise?\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is not just escalation. This is escalation plus,\u201d an official told Dawn.<\/em><\/p>\nGovernment officials don\u2019t see an end to the current situation between the two sides any time soon.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, those dealing with the subject are now convinced that Kandahar \u2014 the spiritual headquarters of the Afghan Taliban \u2014 holds little sway when it comes to addressing the issue of TTP and other militant outfits.<\/p>\n
Aides close to Hibatullah Akhundzada have reportedly conveyed to Pakistan that the Taliban supreme leader does not approve of the regime\u2019s policy vis-\u00e0-vis the TTP and others.<\/p>\n
While some figures within the Afghan regime see Pakistani militants as an increasing liability, it is the more powerful Haqqani-led cabal who could, if it wanted, deliver for the Pakistanis. Know\u00adledgeable sources insist Islam\u00adab\u00ad\u00adad is not seeking regime change in Kabul, but they are adamant that Pakistan is currently in no mood to back down. \u201cWe have crossed the Rubicon. Keep up the pressure and keep raising the cost until the regime there understands that their policy is counter-productive and non-sustainable.\u201d<\/p>\n
While Pakistan\u2019s current Afghan policy has seemingly entered a decisive pha\u00adse, many who are weary of Islamabad\u2019s handling of its western neighbour still wonder whether there really is a long-term strategy.<\/p>\n
There are also many who believe that Pakistan missed a trick working with the Ashraf Ghani-led administration, which in 2019 approved its National Security Paper, declaring the TTP a security threat to Afghanistan and jailed more than 2500 of them. \u201cThey understood. It was easy to deal with them\u201d, said one source who experience dealing with the Ghani regime in the past.<\/p>\n
But a combination of factors \u2014 including India\u2019s growing influence and Ghani\u2019s courting of pan-Pakhtun nationalism and larger strategic goals \u2014 led Islam\u00ad\u00adabad to continue backing the Taliban.<\/p>\n
\u201cWith 20\/20 hindsight, backing Ghani\u2019s administration would have been a good option. Pakistan fully backed him in his election. But this is in the past now. We are in a different situation, which requires a different approach. Now that the bullet has been fired, the level of pressure must not be reduced till the Taliban relent and give in.\u201d<\/p>\n
Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2026<\/em><\/p>\n
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