But Beijing’s concern is less about who governs Iran and more about whether its interests are protected, said analysts.
Ghiselli from the University of Exeter said Beijing is observing “what kind of new leadership emerges”.
According to him, the next regime governing Iran will probably remain authoritarian – but likely “more military in nature rather than led by the clerics”.
Ghiselli said China may “somewhat welcome this change”, citing how some Chinese observers have long criticised the clerical leadership for having “pushed Iran really into a corner without developing the economy enough”.
The Atlantic Council’s Fulton said Beijing is “quite agnostic” about who’s governing Iran.
“If there is regime change, I don’t think that would really alter China’s interests in Iran,” he said.
“It could actually support China’s interests if there is a less aggressive regime … that would probably result in a more predictable region, which would be good for China.”
While anti-Western alignment is Beijing’s “primary common political ground” with countries like Iran, China’s core interests do not include “propping up anti-American dictatorships around the world”, said Drew Thompson, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS).
“Should the Iranian government fall … Beijing is certain to engage the successor regime whatever its ideology, ensuring that the new government does not recognise Taiwan, protects China’s trade and investment interests, keeps the oil flowing and diplomatic channels open,” he wrote in a Jan 21 RSIS commentary predating the Israeli-US strikes on Iran.
At the same time, China is also balancing relations on the other side of the Gulf.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes have hit Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – states where China’s commercial interests far outweigh its ties with Tehran.
