Perhaps the most meaningful debate happening in the sports media business right now is how to view the NBA’s recent 11-year, $76 billion rights deals in the context of the NFL’s impending media rights negotiations.
It’s clear that the NFL will be looking to re-up its media rights several years prior to its contractual opt-out options in 2029 and 2030. The impetus of these early negotiations, many believe, is the NBA’s new deals with ESPN, NBC, and Prime Video.
The NBA secured a massive increase in its media rights valuation compared to its previous deals with ESPN and TNT Sports. In fact, NBC and Prime Video are currently paying the NBA more on average each year than either broadcaster owes the NFL. NBC pays about $2 billion annually for the Sunday Night Football package, but about $2.45 billion for Sunday Night Basketball. Prime Video pays the NFL $1 billion per year for Thursday Night Football, but is shelling out $1.8 billion for NBA rights.
If that seems crazy, it’s because it is. The NFL is far and away the most popular programming left on television, capturing 83 of the 100 most-watched telecasts in 2025. The NBA did not appear on that list.
We can all agree that NFL programming should be worth more than NBA programming. But each league’s current deals raise the question: are the NFL’s rights undervalued, or the NBA’s rights overvalued?
The answer is probably a bit of both. If the NBA could command such high media rights fees, the NFL almost certainly could’ve asked for higher fees itself before its current deals began in 2023. At the same time, networks might already be experiencing some buyer’s remorse over the NBA deal.
This reality might be best distilled into a single data point from investment firm Guggenheim Securities, recently published by CNBC’s Mike Ozanian.
Per Guggenheim, NBA broadcasters pay about $3.55 per viewer hour, while NFL broadcasters pay just $1.27 per viewer hour. As Ozanian notes, this means broadcasters are paying “a 2.8x premium for NBA despite the NFL delivering nearly 4x the viewer hours annually (7.88b vs 1.97b).”
From Guggenheim Securities: The most recent #NBA rights agreement commands a cost per viewer hour of $3.55 versus $1.27 for current #NFL agreement (based on 2024 viewership), a 2.8x premium for NBA despite the NFL delivering nearly 4x the viewer hours annually (7.88b vs 1.97b). pic.twitter.com/5SqjDZrJGV
— Mike Ozanian (@MikeOzanian) March 3, 2026
In the NFL’s estimation, this needs recalibrating. But the league is only half of the equation. It needs to convince its broadcast partners to pay more than they already do for the NFL.
Just earlier this week, Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch expressed skepticism that the value of NFL rights has appreciably increased since three years ago, when the current deals took effect.
“[Rights fees] went up, I think, over 100% three years ago. We think our current pricing is at market,” Murdoch said.
The Fox CEO could’ve just as easily said something along the lines of, “Just because some of our peers paid too much for the NBA doesn’t mean we should have to pay considerably more for the NFL,” and driven home the same point.
Unfortunately for Murdoch, that’s not how markets work. These rights are worth whatever a broadcaster is willing to pay for them, and while the NBA deal might’ve sent the media rights market out of whack, Fox will still have to bear that burden despite not being involved.
Once the NFL reworks its deals, it’s likely that whatever “premium” broadcasters are currently paying for NBA rights will shrink considerably. But for now, the NBA’s successful negotiation is a big reason why the NFL believes it can have another huge payday years earlier than anticipated.
