Can NVIDIA Shares Hit $500 By 2030?

• NVIDIA (NVDA) currently trades for $177.82. We analyze what kind of results the company would need to deliver to hit $500 per share by 2030. If the company can reach an EPS of $20 to $25 per share, that kind of share price growth is likely achievable.

• While news for NVIDIA has been improving dramatically in recent months, shares have been stuck in neutral. We analyze why being associated with the ‘OpenAI’ complex alongside stocks like Oracle (ORCL) could be limiting NVIDIA’s recent gains.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here FREE.

NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares sank on Friday afternoon to close the week trading at $177.82. NVIDIA is now down 4.65% in 2026 despite a wave of good news that includes massive hyperscaler spending plans and blowout earnings.

With NVIDIA shares stuck in neutral, asking whether they could hit $500 per share by 2030 feels like an outlandish goal! Yet, there is math that could support such a move. Let’s dive into what it would take for NVIDIA to hit $500 per share by 2030 and why shares have been trading sideways the past six months despite such phenomenal news.

If we want to look ahead to 2030, the first step is understanding what estimates Wall Street is currently modeling for the company. We can find consensus revenue and EPS from Wall Street via data from Capital IQ.

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

It’s worth noting that once we arrive at Fiscal 2030 (which takes place mostly in calendar 2029), estimates will be a lot less precise as many analysts will only provide estimates two or three years out. For comparison, in the past 12 months, NVIDIA delivered revenue of $215.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.77.

It might surprise you to hear Wall Street is dramatically underestimating NVIDIA this year. After all, Wall Street is already calling for earnings of $8.25 per share across the past year. That’s growth of 73%!

Yet, my estimate is NVIDIA will deliver $9 to $10 in EPS this year. I issued that prediction before their recent earnings. That prediction is proving prescient already. Estimates for NVIDIA’s earnings this year were $7.76 before they reported earnings and they’re at $8.25 now. Expect that number to continue rising in the coming weeks as NVIDIA hosts its annual GTC conference and announces products that will lead to Wall Street modeling more growth for the company.

Here’s what the EPS trajectory shows. If NVIDIA delivers $10 in EPS this fiscal year, FY2028 estimates would likely move closer to $13 per share in adjusted EPS. As a reminder, Wall Street currently is modeling the company to deliver $10.74, but that number would rise if analysts take current year estimates up.

From there, FY2029 would move closer to $15. The Street is currently modeling $12.85 for FY2029.

For the stock to reach $500 by 2030, NVIDIA would likely need to generate at least $20 to $25 in adjusted EPS. At those levels, it would trade between 20x and 25x EPS. NVIDIA has beaten EPS estimates every single quarter this fiscal year, and the trajectory of AI infrastructure spending supports continued growth. That’s an extraordinary number. But it’s not impossible given the trajectory of AI infrastructure spending.

Since we’re talking about the scenarios required for NVIDIA shares to hit $500 by 2030, we also need to discuss why they’re stuck in neutral today. There are two primary factors.

First, hyperscaler spending plans for this year are so aggressive that they’ve triggered a paradox on Wall Street. The largest cloud companies are deploying essentially all of their free cash flow into AI infrastructure. For spending to increase further from here, they’ll need to either take on more debt or start generating meaningful AI revenue that funds the next wave of investment. Until that loop closes, the market is pricing in a spending plateau.

Second, NVIDIA has become deeply associated with what analysts describe as the “OpenAI complex.” Other companies tied to OpenAI, such as Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), have seen heavy sell-offs over the past six months. The market is effectively saying it doesn’t believe OpenAI can sustain its current spending pace. Because NVIDIA is the primary supplier to that ecosystem, skepticism about OpenAI bleeds directly into NVIDIA’s multiple.

Until there’s more clarity on both fronts, the stock will remain range-bound. However, as I noted earlier, there are catalysts coming, including NVIDIA’s GTC Event that begins on March 16th. I’d expect Wall Street will further increase estimates across the next two years after the event as NVIDIA outlines its product roadmap and unveils new products.

At $177.82, NVIDIA trades at roughly 18x my next-year EPS estimate of $9 to $10. That is below market averages for a company that would be doubling profits year-over-year if those estimates are hit. The trailing P/E sits at 37x, but the forward multiple compresses dramatically as earnings scale.

The business fundamentals remain extraordinary. Full-year FY2026 revenue came in at $215.94 billion, up 65.47% year-over-year. Free cash flow hit $96.6 billion for the year. Data center networking revenue alone grew 263% year-over-year in Q4, signaling full-stack platform adoption rather than just GPU sales.

Jensen Huang put it plainly on the Q4 earnings call: “Computing demand is growing exponentially. The agentic AI inflection point has arrived.” That’s not marketing language. It’s backed by Q1 FY2027 guidance of approximately $78 billion in revenue, with gross margins holding near 75%.

The honest answer is: it depends entirely on whether AI generates enough revenue for the hyperscalers to keep spending at scale. If the AI industrial revolution delivers on its promise, NVIDIA’s earnings power will force the stock higher. If spending stalls, the $500 target stays out of reach.

My vote: NVIDIA is a buy today. I recently committed another $25,000 buy to NVIDIA in the 24/7 Wall St. AI Investor Portfolio. Whether or not the company can reach $500 per share by 2030, I’m very confident it will be a winner across the next 18 months.

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