The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Wednesday fell -0.08%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.61%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.03%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.15%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -0.07%.
Stocks were undercut by Wednesday’s +6 bp rise in the 10-year T-note yield and the +4.6% rally in WTI crude oil prices. Crude oil prices rallied despite the IEA members’ decision to release 400 million barrels from emergency oil stockpiles.
Stocks saw downward pressure as the Iran war dragged on, with missiles hitting three vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf on Wednesday, and new missile volleys hitting Israel.
However, tech stocks received support from Oracle’s positive AI news.
The oil market took in stride Wednesday’s decision by IEA members to release 400 million barrels of oil from strategic stockpiles, much larger than the 182 million-barrel release in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The release is designed to replace the oil lost due to the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and the subsequent production cuts by Persian Gulf oil producers, although it will take some time for the oil stockpiles to reach the market.
Stocks showed little net reaction to the CPI report, which was in line with market expectations. The Feb CPI rose +0.3% m/m and +2.4% y/y, while the Feb core CPI rose +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. The headline CPI report of +2.4% y/y was just 0.1 point above the 5-year low posted in April 2025, while the core CPI of +2.5% y/y matched the 5-year low posted in the two previous months. Even though the CPI figures are at or near 5-year lows, they are still above the Fed’s target of +2%. Moreover, inflation pressures will worsen in the coming months due to the recent spike in oil and fuel prices caused by the war in Iran.
Stocks were undercut after JPMorgan Chase said it is restricting lending to private credit funds amid markdowns on some of its loans in the sector, hampering the sector’s attempt to weather the current crisis. The $1.8 trillion private credit sector is struggling to cope with an investor exodus driven by unattractive returns and fears of more financial difficulties among portfolio borrowers.
