For east African neighbours Kenya and Somalia, the effects of climate change are worlds apart, with one country suffering drought and the other deadly flooding.
On the outskirts of Baidoa, southern Somalia, 38-year-old pastoralist Asha Hassan walks several kilometres each morning to find water for the few goats she has left.
Two years ago, she owned nearly 60 – now just 11 remain.
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“The drought does not kill everything at once,” she says. “It takes a little today, a little tomorrow, until you realise your whole herd has disappeared.”
In large parts of Somalia, drought grips communities that have faced years of failed rains. Wells are shrinking, grazing land has turned brittle and many families rely on aid deliveries.
But a few hundred kilometres to the south, a different kind of disaster is unfolding. In Kenya, heavy rains have triggered floods that have swept through villages, submerged roads and killed residents in low-lying areas. While one country prays for rain, its neighbour prays for it to stop.
‘A broader pattern’
“It is the same sky above us,” Hassan says. “But it is giving different punishments.”
The Horn of Africa often experiences extreme weather, but scientists say the region is now seeing sharper contrasts between neighbouring countries.
“What seems like a contradiction is actually part of a broader climate pattern,” says Abdi Noor, a climate scientist with the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
“Rainfall in the region is becoming more uneven. Some areas receive far less rain than normal, while others face sudden and intense storms.”
These changes are influenced by large-scale climate systems in the Indian Ocean that shape East Africa’s rainy seasons.
‘Climate whiplash’: East Africa caught between floods and drought
Floods in Kenya
In parts of Nairobi, heavy rains have caused rivers to overflow, flooding neighborhoods along their banks.
Peter Otieno, a resident of Mathare, says storms now arrive more quickly than he remembers from his childhood.
During one recent storm, water flooded homes while residents were asleep.
“You wake up and the floor is already wet,” Otieno says. “Then the water keeps rising.”
Families rushed to carry children and belongings to higher ground. For many locals already struggling with rising food prices and unstable work opportunities, the floods have added another layer of hardship.
“When the drought was happening in the north, we were hearing about hunger,” Otieno says. “Here we are fighting water.”
Deadly flash floods devastate Kenyan capital after torrential rain
Somalia’s slow emergency
In Somalia, the crisis is unfolding more slowly. Drought rarely comes as a single dramatic event, instead creeping across landscapes, drying wells and weakening livestock.
In the rural areas around Baidoa, many families have had to move to find pasture and water. “Every week we travel farther,” Hassan says. “The animals walk until they cannot walk anymore.”
Humanitarian workers say the prolonged drought has changed livelihoods across parts of the country.
“When livestock die, families lose both food and income,” says Abdullahi Mohamed, a field coordinator with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). “Recovery can take years.”
Crisis-level hunger in Somalia nearly doubles to 6.5 million people, UN experts warn
Experts say the contrasting crises in Somalia and Kenya show how climate change is changing weather patterns across East Africa.
Warmer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, which can lead to heavier rainfall in some areas. At the same time, higher heat speeds up evaporation and can worsen drought elsewhere.
“Climate change does not affect every place the same way at the same time,” says Miriam Ochieng of the University of Nairobi. “It often creates a patchwork of extremes.”
