The state of Texas loves to tout its size, but it can also brag about landing the most teams in the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket. Seven programs from the Lone Star State are a part of March Madness 2026, highlighted by 2-seed Houston and 5-seed Texas Tech. However, four of the seven Texas programs are double-digit seeds, so the Cougars and Red Raiders may be the state’s best bets for deep 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket runs.
North Carolina (five) is the only other state with more than four teams in the 2026 March Madness bracket. A total of 31 states, plus Washington, D.C., are represented in the NCAA college basketball tournament, so interest in March Madness pools and NCAA Tournament bracket picks stretches across the nation. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
Two years ago, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine’s computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.
This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn’s championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn’t even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.
Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks
One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. The Hawkeyes boast the top scoring defense (66 ppg allowed) in the Big Ten and the conference’s No. 5 scorer in Bennett Stirtz (20 ppg). Iowa also controls the class, as just three teams allow fewer offensive rebounds per game. Not allowing extra possessions would force any opponent to struggle to generate points, especially one as weak as Clemson’s.
The Tigers lack a go-to scorer, which is something paramount to success in March. They’re the only power conference team without any players averaging at least 12 ppg, and a lack of offense has led Clemson to a 4-6 record over its last 10 games. Add in that No. 9 seeds have won 64.3% of matchups versus No. 8 seeds over the last eight years, and the model backs the Big Ten to prevail over the ACC in this contest.
Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 10 Texas A&M knocks off No. 7 Saint Mary’s. The Aggies are a veteran-laden squad with seven of their top eight scorers being seniors. They also have unparalleled depth as their 35.6 bench ppg are the most by any power conference team over the last decade. Thus, A&M has lots of scoring options to throw at Saint Mary’s, and the Gaels simply lack the firepower to keep up.
Saint Mary’s sits outside the top 100 teams in both scoring (78.2 ppg) and shooting (46.1 FG%). While the Gaels rank 10th nationally in 3P%, they are just 266th in terms of attempts, which mitigates one of their biggest strengths. This first-round contest would qualify as a Quad 1 game for Saint Mary’s, and the team is just 1-4 in Quad 1 games this year, compared to 26-1 in all other contests. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.
How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions
Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model’s track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you’ll want to see which stunners it’s calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.
So what’s the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that’s nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.
