Rubio love bombs Europe in style, while issuing stark warnings on substance, and it worked – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
in Munich
You could hear that sigh of relief across the continent.
That was a very different speech to JD Vance’s last year in style, if not necessarily always substance.
Rubio repeatedly made clear his personal and the US’s admiration of Europe, and framing all concerns – or disagreements and frustrations – in this context. The line of that the US will always be a child of Europe was a particularly nice touch.
It’s a clever figure of speech, which JD Vance also partially tried to do last year (at times), but failed with his much more confrontational, almost accusatory tone.
Rubio chose to do it completely differently – with clever references to shared history, and both European and specifically German links with the US – and clearly succeeded, sweet talking the room into giving him a big applause and a partial standing ovation at the end.
You surely know that famous quote that “a diplomat is a person who can tell you to go to hell in such a way that you actually look forward to the trip.”
Well, he’s their chief diplomat after all.
But a small cynic in me wonders: are we entirely sure that other – and more senior – people in the US administration, including both the vice-president and the president, necessarily agree with Rubio’s framing?
I’m not entirely sure.
Key events
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Starmer defends US alliance, but says Europe must take ‘primary responsibility’ for its defence to strengthen alliance, Starmer says
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Munich conference applauds Starmer’s break with Brexit years Britain
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‘Solidity of peace is softening,’ Starmer warns, as he points to ‘warning signs’ from Russia
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Europe needs to ‘recaliberate’ its security strategy to respond to challenges, von der Leyen says
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’10 years from Brexit, our futures are as bound as ever,’ von der Leyen says, as she calls for closer relations with UK
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Europe going through ‘awakening’ in response to changing global landscape, von der Leyen says
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Europe experiences ‘shock therapy’ on security as it wakes up from decades of lull, von der Leyen says
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Von der Leyen calls for ‘more independent’ Europe in response to global crises
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China hopes for settlement of Ukraine war, and Europe should be involved, Wang Yi says
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Rubio love bombs Europe in style, while issuing stark warnings on substance, and it worked – snap analysis
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Talks ‘narrowed’ issues on Ukraine, but hardest questions remain unanswered for now, Rubio says
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End of transatlantic era ‘not our goal nor our wish,’ Rubio says
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US does not want allies to ‘rationalise broken status quo’ but face it and fix it, Rubio says
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US not interested in being ‘caretakers of west’s managed decline’, Rubio says in urgent call to reject ‘decline’
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UN, international bodies need to be urgently reformed as ‘we do not live in perfect world,’ Rubio says
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Rubio takes aim at deindustrialisation, mass migration as risks to Europe
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US ‘little direct and urgent in counsel,’ because ‘we care deeply,’ Rubio says
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Rubio talks about postwar delusion mistakes made ‘together’ by Europe and US
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Postwar triumph led to ‘dangerous delusion’ on end of history, Rubio says
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Starmer’s Munich speech alongside EU’s von der Leyen part of rapidly evolving post-Brexit relations – snap analysis
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Morning opening: What will the US say?
Starmer defends US alliance, but says Europe must take ‘primary responsibility’ for its defence to strengthen alliance, Starmer says
Starmer then defends the UK and Europe’s relationship with the US, which he calls “an indispensable ally,” with “unparalled” contribution to the continent’s safety.
But he says “we recognise that things are changing,” as he refers the US national security strategy’s suggestion of its focus shifting away from Europe.
“Europe must take primary responsibility for its own defence, that is the new normal,” he says.
He says there is no point in pretending “we can simply replace all US capabilities,” but “we should focus on diverisfying and decreasing some dependencies.”
“We should deliver generational investments that move us from overdependence to interdependence,” he says.
He talks about “a vision of European security and greater European autonomy that does not herald US withdrawal, but answers the call for more burden sharing.”
He also makes a passing reference to Europeans “asserting each other’s sovereignty as we did on Greenland.”
He then praises Nato’s unique role in history – and pointedly references the alliance’s contribution in Afghanistan, recently questioned by Trump.
And he says that the UK’s commitment to Article Five clause is “as profound now as ever,” and “if called on, the UK would come to your air today.”
He gets some applause for that.
Munich conference applauds Starmer’s break with Brexit years Britain
Starmer then delivers his line that “we are not the Britain of the Brexit years any more.”
He gets interrupted by applause in a clear sign of what the audience thinks of Brexit.
He says “in a dangerous world, we would not take control by turning inward; we would surrender it and I won’t let that happen.”
He says that’s why he devotes so much time as UK PM to global issues, as “ I am clear there is no British security without Europe, and no European security without Britain.”
“That is the lesson of history, and is today’s reality as well,” he says to applause.
‘Solidity of peace is softening,’ Starmer warns, as he points to ‘warning signs’ from Russia
Starmer says that “for many years, for most people in the UK war has been remote: something that concerns us deeply, but which happens far away.”
But now “the solidity of peace” has been “softening,” he says.
He says leaders need to get ahead of the “warning signs” from Russia and get ready for what could come in the future.
He says:
“All of the warning signs are there.
Russia has proved its appetite for aggression, bringing terrible suffering to the Ukrainian people.
Its hybrid threats extend across our continent, not just threatening our security, but tearing at our social contract, collaborating with populists who undermine our values, using disinformation to sow division, using cyber-attacks and sabotage to disrupt our lives and deepening the cost of living crisis.”
He says that Russia “has made a huge strategic blunder” in Ukraine, but it continues to rearm and as Nato says it could be ready to use force against the alliance “by the end of this decade.”
He says that even if there is a peace deal in Ukraine, “the wider danger for Europe would not end there,” but only increase.
He says “we do not seek conflict,” but we need to “face these threats”.
“We must be able to deter aggression, and yes, if necessary, we must be ready to fight, to do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values, and our way of live.”
He adds that “as Europe, we must stand own on our own two feet now,” and that means “putting away petty politics and short term concerns” but focusing on working together.
He says it means “acting together to build a stronger Europe and a more European Nato underpinned by deeper links between the UK and the EU.”
Von der Leyen then turns to lessons from Ukraine, as she says that “strenght and deterrence and ultimately lives depend on industrial capacity; producting, scaling and sustaining the effort over time.”
She says Europe needs to “tear down the rigid wall between the civilian and defence sector,” and look at dual-use industries and how its experience as a global powerhouse for car manufacturing, aerospace and heavy machinery can be used in Europe’s defence industry.
She also talks about the use of new technologies, and in particular drones and new AI-assisted weapon systems.
She then says:
“Some ask whether we can afford this, but I say we cannot afford not to.”
She says Europe needs to do more to step up its defences to honour Ukraine’s sacrifice and get more independent.
That’s it from her – she will be back for Q&A.
Starmer is up next.
Europe needs to ‘recaliberate’ its security strategy to respond to challenges, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen says Europe needs a new security strategy to “recalibrate the way we use our entire policy toolbox.”
Remember: before coming to the EU, she was a German defence minister 2013-2019, under Angela Merkel.
She says “we in Europe should be ready and willing to use our strength assertively and proactively to protect our security interests.”
She adds:
“We need a new doctrine for this with a simple goal to ensure that Europe can defend its own territory, economy, democracy and way of life at all times. Because this is ultimately the true meaning of independence.”
’10 years from Brexit, our futures are as bound as ever,’ von der Leyen says, as she calls for closer relations with UK
Von der Leyen turns to talking about EU’s partners, including the UK.
She praises the UK’s work on expedtiionary forces, involvement across the High North adn in the Baltic region, and the Coalition of the Willing.
She says:
“This means, in this actually volatile time, Europe and in particular the UK, should come closer on security, on economy, on defending our democracies.
10 years from Brexit, our futures are as bound as ever, dear Keir, so it is in our common interest to be ambitious about our partnership.
Because the UK and the European Union, in fact, all of Europe, we are in this together, and we will always stick together.”
Europe going through ‘awakening’ in response to changing global landscape, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen references some recent decisions on EU’s Safe programme to rearm the continent, and on further loan to Ukraine.
“This is a true European awakening, and this is only the start of what we need to do,” she says.
She says the EU needs to bring Europe’s mutual defence clause to life – something that Merz also mentioned yesterday – to figure out what it means in practice.
She also says that the EU needs to move faster, turning increasingly to qualified majority rather than unanimity to get around individual countries seeking to bloc its decision-making, she says.
(Viktor Orbán will not like that.)
Europe experiences ‘shock therapy’ on security as it wakes up from decades of lull, von der Leyen says
Von der Leyen continues by rejecting a suggestion that an independent Europe could somehow weaken the relations with the US.
Referencing Rubio’s speech, she notes that “an independent Europe is a strong Europe, and a strong Europe makes for a stronger transatlantic alliance.”
She says that “over many decades … Europe’s security was not always seen as our primary responsibility,” but insists “this has fundamentally changed.”
“Admittedly, it has taken some shock therapy and some lines have been crossed that cannot be uncrossed any more. But what is needed, at least, we all agree on and we are delivering,” she says.
Von der Leyen calls for ‘more independent’ Europe in response to global crises
Von der Leyen begins by summing up that the world is essentially on fire, pointing to the state of EU-US relations, Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine, and “the very distinct threat of outside forces trying to weaken our union from within.”
She says there is only one way to respond to all of this: by making Europe “more independent … in every dimension that affects our security and prosperity, defence and energy, economy and trade, raw materials and digital tech.”
She gets a round of applause on the word “independent”.
Aaaand we’re going straight into the Europe panel, with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, up next.
She’s speaking now.
Wang Yi also gets asked about the security situation in Asia Pacific.
He says China remains “an important pillar for peace in Asia,” but accepts there are “challenges.”
He pointedly criticises Japanese prime minister Takaichi for recent comments on Taiwan, saying they directly “violate China’s territorial sovereignty” and were unacceptable to China.
That ends the Q&A.
