Intensifying Israeli bombing of civilian targets in Iran and an expanding US military force in the Gulf are casting a dark shadow over Pakistan’s hopes of hosting peace talks between Iran and the US.
Pakistan is attempting high-wire diplomacy, using its relative neutrality as a country with good relations with Iran and the US, to provide a venue for negotiations. It is not a player in the Middle East and does not host any American military bases, so it does not bring the baggage of other potential regional mediators.
Pakistan’s de facto leader, military chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, has the US president’s ear, and Islamabad’s ties with Tehran have dramatically improved over the past couple of years.
Both sides have indicated their willingness in principle to talk, according to Pakistani officials. But the conflict is widening, there’s little trust and the stated positions of Tehran and Washington are far apart. Pakistani officials believe the biggest risk to any talks is Israel playing the role of spoiler.
Israel bombed two of Iran’s largest steel plants on Friday and civilian nuclear sites, which, Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said contradicts President Donald Trump’s announcement of a pause in attacks on civilian infrastructure to give diplomacy a chance. Iran also said two universities were hit.
Those are just the kind of attacks on non-military and non-regime targets that would derail the talks, Pakistani officials believe.
Iran’s core concern is to ensure an end to the war and that there are no future attacks by the US and Israel, said Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US.
“The toughest part is believing Trump’s word. He is not a rational player. He’s completely whimsical,” said Lodhi.
Trump insists Iran wants a deal “so badly”, but Tehran says he is “negotiating with himself”.
Iran does not just want a ceasefire but a guarantee the war is over. One possibility is for Tehran to retain its hold over the strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for the Gulf’s oil and gas exports that Iran has been controlling during the war. That idea was described as unacceptable by the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, though Trump himself has suggested joint US-Iranian administration of the strait.
So far, Pakistan has passed proposals between the two sides, in which they have taken hardline positions. Pakistani officials believe that if Iran and the US sincerely want to reach an agreement, the divide can be bridged.
Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts intensified on Saturday, with the country’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, calling the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the announcement the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will hold talks in Islamabad on Sunday and Monday about how to end the war.
These four countries are emerging as a new alignment within the Muslim world, packing three of the biggest armies in the region, nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia’s financial heft. But officials from Saudi Arabia, which has been repeatedly hit by Iran, have privately said that they want the bombardment to continue.
Islamabad expects any talks to be indirect, with Pakistani officials shuttling between the US and Iranian delegations in different rooms. Tehran refuses to sit down face-to-face with US officials.
Pakistan is nuclear-armed with a large army that could secure a venue for talks, while its air force could provide Iranian officials with an escort to fly in.
Iran says Washington is again trying to deceive, having twice bombed them over the past year in the midst of talks. A buildup of US troops in the region suggests peace talks may not be the US’s plan. The Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday that the Pentagon is considering sending 10,000 more soldiers, in addition to 7,000 ground troops already on the way to the Middle East.
To build confidence, Pakistan suggested the US be represented by vice-president JD Vance, an idea taken up by Iran. Tehran does not trust the interlocutors they have previously dealt with, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Vance was reportedly more sceptical of the war.
Vance told the “Benny Show” podcast on Friday the US had accomplished most or all of its military objectives, but added: “The president’s going to keep at it for a little while longer to ensure that once we leave, we don’t have to do this again for a very, very long time.”
For Pakistan, there is also a further urgency to its peace efforts. Last year, the country signed a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, which means it could be forced to enter the war on Riyadh’s side. With a long border with Iran and the world’s second biggest Shia Muslim population, after Iran, that is an outcome Pakistan is determined to avoid.
