Shares of semiconductor supplier Aehr Test Systems (NASDAQ:AEHR) are 7.7% lower at $30.03 at last glance, eyeing a fourth consecutive loss ahead of the company’s fiscal third-quarter earnings report after the close on Tuesday, April 7. Despite its recent string of negative activity, shares sport a whopping 286% year-over-year lead, in addition to a 50.6% lead for 2026. AEHR could be headed back toward its March 3, two-year high of $46.95, too, thanks to this historically bullish trendline.
According to Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, shares are within 0.75 of the 80-day moving average’s 20-day average true range (ATR), after remaining above it 80% of the time in the past two weeks and in 80% of the last 42 trading sessions. This signal has happened another seven in the last 10 years, after which AEHR was higher one month later in 71% of those instances, averaging a 19.1% win. A move of similar magnitude would place the shares just shy back above $36.
A positive post-earnings reaction could help the stock conquer that record high. The equity settled higher after four of their last eight earnings reports, including a sizable 15.9% pop back in January. The options pits are pricing in a move of 21% this time around, regardless of direction, which is considerably higher than the 18.1% move shares averaged over the last two years.
Though shorts are already hitting the exits, with short interest down 12.2% in the last two reporting periods, there’s still plenty of room for a squeeze. The 4.43 million shares sold short make up 15.4% of Aehr Test Systems stock’s available float, or just over three days’ worth of pent-up buying power.
Plus, the AEHR’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) comes in at 71 out of 100. In other words, the shares have consistently realized higher volatility than its options have priced in over the past 12 months.
