Pittsburgh Pirates ace and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes didn’t have just the worst start of his MLB career last time out, it was arguably the worst in franchise history on Opening Day. But I expect a major bounce-back effort in an April Fools’ Day matinee from Cincinnati with a 12:40 ET first pitch Wednesday. Some rain is forecast, so maybe it’s delayed, but the series finale between NL Central rivals should be played.
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It was rather humorous being in the SportsLine Discord MLB channel last Thursday afternoon around 1:20 ET time, because everyone in there was dropping curse words about losing No Run First Inning on the Pirates-Mets opener from Citi Field. That was the most-wagered NRFI of the first full Opening Day because it featured a pair of aces in Skenes and New York’s Freddy Peralta.
Instead, a shocking seven first-inning runs were scored, five of those via the Mets off Skenes. He was pulled after just 37 pitches, allowing those five earned on four hits with two walks and one strikeout in just two-thirds of an inning. It marked the shortest season debut ever by a reigning Cy Young winner among those whose first appearance was a start.
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Since at least 1900, there hadn’t been another starting pitcher in Pirates history who didn’t make it at least one full inning on Opening Day. To be fair, center fielder Oniel Cruz badly misplayed two balls that essentially led to at least of the five runs. Originally a shortstop, Cruz is still a work in progress when it comes to playing center. Entering the season, Skenes had made 55 career starts and had only given up more than three runs five times.
“Flush it… nice to get [a bad start] out of the way,” Skenes said. “You have to look at it for what it is — there wasn’t a ton of hard contact.” He’s right, there wasn’t.
The sportsbooks did punish him a little as Skenes moved from the +220 favorite to repeat for the Cy Young to +400 second favorite at FanDuel behind Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez (+300), who was the 2025 runner-up to Skenes and got all 30 second-place votes. (Sanchez is also pitching Wednesday afternoon vs. Washington.)
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It was the shortest start of Skenes’ career, and he had never failed to get through at least two. His previous shortest came on Sept. 28, 2024, against the Yankees, when he was pulled after two perfect innings simply because of innings management at the end of his NL Rookie of the Year campaign. His quickest unplanned exit had been Sept. 16, 2025, when Skenes lasted 3 2/3 innings and allowed three runs and seven hits in a loss against the Cubs.
What did Skenes do in his next start after that Cubs debacle? Threw six shutout innings with seven strikeouts and no walks in a no-decision in Cincinnati. Boy has the righty had the Reds‘ number in his young career, going 4-0 with a 0.31 ERA and 0.79 WHIP in five starts with 40 strikeouts and 21 hits allowed in 29 innings. No active Reds player has gone yard off him.
The SportsLine Projection Model has Skenes at 6 1/3 innings Wednesday, with 1.6 earned runs and 4.1 hits allowed, along with 6.8 strikeouts but only a 28% shot to get credit for the victory. DraftKings has has an O/U of 7.5 strikeouts, with the Under at -140.
It’s a good young lefty on the mound for Cincinnati in 26-year-old Andrew Abbott, who finished eighth in the 2025 NL Cy Young voting after going 10-7 with a 2.87 ERA. Abbott took a no-decision in his 2026 opener vs. Boston despite six shutout innings. He’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in three career starts vs. Pittsburgh, so runs should be at a premium today. New Pirate Brandon Lowe has had some limited success vs. Abbott with two doubles in three at-bats. The model gives Abbott a 35% shot of winning today.
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The model has the Reds winning 4.0-3.8, but I want to get above 9 for the alt total. If Cincinnati pushes at +2, that leg simply falls off. Feels like a one-run game to me, but I prefer the run line insurance. Check out other expert picks in the daily newsletter.
