Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) reports first-quarter 2026 results on 6 May, with UBS flagging that the results will provide the first meaningful look at the company’s economics at new, lower price points for its GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) obesity and diabetes drugs.
The Danish pharmaceutical company has shed 27% of its market value year to date, hit by full-year 2026 guidance that came in significantly below market expectations and a disappointing clinical trial readout for CagriSema, a combination drug that proved inferior to rival Eli Lilly’s Zepbound in the REDEFINE-4 study.
UBS highlights the oral version of Wegovy, the company’s flagship injectable weight-loss drug, as the key focus for investors, with weekly prescription volumes approaching 100,000 according to IQVIA data, though UBS notes those figures capture only around 60% of actual scripts written.
The bank forecasts first-quarter oral Wegovy sales of $235 million, but cautions that a wide range of outcomes is possible given uncertainty around pricing across different sales channels, including direct patient support programmes, telehealth providers and commercial insurers.
On the broader injectable Wegovy business, UBS notes that volume growth in the first quarter has been stronger than Novo’s own guidance assumed, raising the possibility that the company could lift the bottom end of its full-year sales growth guidance range, currently set at minus 5% to minus 13% on a constant exchange rate basis.
Gross margin, which UBS estimates at 79% for the quarter, is flagged as a key unknown, with clarity expected to come when results land.
UBS also points to the ongoing launch of Eli Lilly’s rival oral GLP-1 drug oforglipron as an additional risk to Novo’s momentum.
UBS maintains its neutral rating on Novo Nordisk with a price target of DKr332.
