The NFL is preparing to ratchet up negotiations with television and streaming partners ahead of its plan to opt out of its current broadcast deals and collect an additional several billion dollars in rights fees.
But while CBS and Fox have been at the center of a swirling storm that now involves public pressure from the FCC and an investigation from the Department of Justice to protect broadcast networks against the invasion of streamers and tech giants, it might be the league’s other broadcast network partner that could be in the most danger – NBC.
The business, political, and sports worlds are all mingling together in this story that gets more fascinating by the minute. With CBS’s acquisition by the Ellison family as part of the Paramount Skydance deal, the NFL can get a head start on negotiating a friendlier contract that represents its true worth. And with streaming giants like Amazon, Google, and Netflix looking to scoop up more games, it represents a real challenge to the current framework that sees most games on over-the-air television.
The sudden interest in government intervention sounds good when it comes to placating fans who are tired of streaming paywalls, but it also comes with favoritism towards broadcast networks owned by friends of the administration. The billionaire Ellison and Murdoch families, who own CBS and Fox respectively, are huge supporters of President Donald Trump. And the FCC and DOJ have shown time and again that they are willing to do the bidding of their political allies. You don’t have to be Benoit Blanc to connect those dots.
But the one network that for now seems to be lost in the shuffle could have the toughest time meeting the NFL’s new demands.
Media analyst Michael Nathanson sees NBC as the biggest risk for losing its current network package to a streamer in an interview with John Ourand at Puck. And the reasoning is pure economics. The network has already invested billions of dollars in the NBA, recently added Sunday Night Baseball, and may not have the capital to withstand a challenge from Netflix for its premier Sunday Night Football series.
“Look at what NBC is paying for the NBA. Now imagine what the NFL wants for Sunday Night Football, which is the best game. What’s stopping Netflix, which wants more events, from getting Sunday night’s best game for 18 straight weeks? That would accelerate its ability to monetize ads. So, to me, the NBC Sunday night game is probably the most at risk,” Nathanson said.
One would hope for NBC’s sake that they’ve done the necessary accounting and kept plenty of dry powder in stock for a Sunday Night Football renewal. It has been the most-watched show on television for 15 consecutive years. It’s the entire reason why NBC has built a Sunday night sports strategy year-round by adding the NBA and MLB. Losing Sunday Night Football would be catastrophic for NBC. But if Netflix offers the NFL $5 billion per year for SNF, how could NBC match and how could the NFL say no?
But there’s not just economic peril for NBC, there’s political peril as well. Trump has called out Comcast CEO Brian Roberts as a “disgrace to broadcasting.” Are the DOJ and FCC going to protect their interest as much as Fox and CBS? Or would they be willing to sacrifice SNF to a streamer as long as CBS and Fox keep their Sunday afternoon lineup and call it a win for everybody that they want to tilt the scoreboard towards?
If NBC is feeling both economic and political pressure, it could be an uphill battle for the network to hold on to its prized NFL possession.
