Oscar voting is now. It ends on March 5. This weekend brought a decisive win for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” at the Producers Guild Awards. The action comedy has rolled across the season with wins at the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards, DGA, ACE, ASC, BSC, and BAFTAs.
That winning streak ended with Sunday’s Actors Awards, when “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan won Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role, followed by the film taking Best Ensemble. Both times the room erupted with enthusiastic applause. The camera caught “Sinners” BAFTA winner Wunmi Mosaku saying, “thank you thank you thank you.” Delroy Lindo repeated that line on the stage when he accepted for the group.
But while these Actors Awards show undeniable support for “Sinners,” that does not mean it will go on to win the Best Picture Oscar. The PGA, which has used the same preferential ballot as the Oscars since 2009, has matched Best Picture 17 of the last 22 years. Rarely does a “1917” or “La La Land” PGA winner fail to repeat with a Best Picture nod. (“Parasite” and “Moonlight” took those wins.)
There could be a late surge of support for “Sinners,” which scored a record 16 Oscar nominations. First-time nominee Jordan could ride this wave in a now wide-open Best Actor race, as Timothée Chalamet has been faltering. For one thing, “Marty Supreme,” while widely admired with nine Oscar nominations, can be an intense experience for some viewers. And four-times nominated Chalamet, who is 30, conducted a wildly innovative marketing campaign, first for the A24 film — which has grossed $157 million worldwide — then for the Oscar, changing his fashion and demeanor with every appearance. The performance is a tour-de-force, but his Oscar push lacks authenticity.
Even though Chalamet took home the Critics Choice and the Comedy Golden Globe, losing the BAFTA to a local hero, Robert Aramayo (“I Swear”), critics groups do not overlap as much as the Screen Actors Guild Actor Awards. Jordan and his feat of playing twin brothers could take the win on Oscar night.
“One Battle After Another” did take home Best Actor in a Supporting Role for Sean Penn, who won the Critics Choice and the BAFTA and now could wrangle a third Oscar. Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) is still an Oscar rival, having won the foreign-leaning Golden Globe, but not the BAFTA. The Actor Awards didn’t even nominate him.
On the other hand, even after her BAFTA win, British actress Mosaku did not repeat at SAG. The win went to Amy Madigan for her colorful turn as Aunt Gladys in “Weapons.” She has been building steam on the award circuit since she won the Critics Choice Award, but she did not nab a BAFTA slot. It’s been 40 years since her last Oscar nomination for “Twice in a Lifetime” (1986). “Wow I’ve been doing this a long-ass time,” she said, cackling. “I’ve never been nominated by the SAG committee. Actors love other actors. Gladys, she’s getting a lot of love back.” She may wind up on cackling on the Oscar stage.
Harrison Ford, who has only been nominated for one Oscar (“Witness”), gave a moving speech as he expressed his gratitude for the SAG Life Achievement Award. “I’m here for winning a prize for being alive,” he said. “It’s weird to be getting a life achievement award at the half point of my career. I’m still a working actor…We all share something fundamental. We share the privilege of working in the world of ideas and imagination. Sometimes we make entertainment. Sometimes we make art. Sometimes if we’re lucky we make both at the same time.”
