Small and medium-sized businesses are navigating a new wave of uncertainty following the Supreme Court’s recent decision on tariffs — and in some ways, the ruling has made planning even harder, according to executives at supply chain software firm Netstock.
While the decision struck down certain tariffs, it also opened the door to temporary measures and potential new levies, creating what Barry Kukkuk, Netstock’s co-founder and chief technology officer, described as a murkier environment than before.
“It’s almost like there’s more uncertainty now that this ruling has come through than what there was three days ago,” Kukkuk told FreightWaves. “A year ago it was chaotic. Everything kind of settled down, and we knew where we stood. Now it’s all back in the air again.”
For small and mid-sized businesses (SMBs), which account for 99% of U.S. firms and roughly 44% of GDP, that uncertainty complicates already fragile supply chain decisions. Many are still grappling with whether tariffs paid in recent years could eventually be refunded — and if so, how long that process might take.
“Is anyone going to get refunded, and how is that even going to work?” Kukkuk said. “How many years is that going to take to unroll all of that? It’s just a mess.”
Despite the legal and policy upheaval, Netstock executives say their customers are largely resisting knee-jerk reactions.
“Our customers are not panic buying,” Kukkuk said. “They understand that it could go this way or it could go that way. Either way, I need to buy this much at a time.”
That restraint stands in contrast to businesses that still rely heavily on spreadsheets for demand planning. According to Jefferson Barr, Netstock’s senior vice president of global marketing, roughly eight in 10 SMBs continue to use spreadsheets as a primary planning tool.
“When there’s uncertainty, your spreadsheet struggles to model that uncertainty,” Kukkuk said. “You don’t really know where things can go.”
Barr added that volatility has become a constant rather than an exception. “One of the terms that we’ve been using is ‘structured volatility,’” he said. “It’s just in our macro economy. The sooner they can learn to deal with it — beyond just using a spreadsheet — the better position they’re in.”
The past several years have conditioned businesses to expect disruption, from pandemic shutdowns to the Suez Canal blockage to geopolitical tensions. Tariffs are simply the latest shock.
“Since 2020, it’s just been one after the next,” Kukkuk said. “Disruptions are here to stay.”
