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Admittedly, the experience of covering this Oscars season has me taking a breath after a spree of awards precursors over the weekend, trying to deliver a measured response along the lines of “I guess this is what we’re doing now,” and then the next awards show completely shattering my most recent expectations.
While “One Battle After Another” winning at the PGA Awards was no surprise, and ultimately “Sinners” winning Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards was too, the big win of the weekend that has been throwing everyone for a loop is Michael B. Jordan receiving the Actor Award for Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role for his performance at the Smokestack Twins in “Sinners.”
At this point, we are being given every indication by the voting bodies with actual Academy overlap that there is a desire to award at least one of the actors from “Sinners.” The question is who?
Taking it all the way back to Oscar nominations in January, part of what helped “Sinners” become the most nominated film of all time was the surprise Best Supporting Actor nomination for Delroy Lindo, who had not been recognized by any of the other major precursors. On one hand, that sort of trivia is exactly why many are predicting he still will not win. But, on the other hand, he is the one nominee campaigning the hardest late in the game, with the most momentum behind him.
It is very notable that Lindo was the one giving the final speech at the Actor Awards, which were streamed to millions of Netflix subscribers. He also won an NAACP Image Award the weekend, which aired on Viacom cable channels like BET and MTV. The veteran actor has had a lot of screentime in such a key time window to really make his case. Meanwhile, “One Battle After Another” star Sean Penn’s two big Best Supporting Actor wins have been accepted in absentia.
The two-time Oscar winner has been extremely selective about which campaign events he attends, even skipping the Nominees Luncheon. Is someone that checked out, and that prickly a figure really about to be among the ranks of three-time Oscar-winning living legends Daniel Day-Lewis, Frances McDormand, Jack Nicholson, and Meryl Streep? T
he truth is probably, especially after winning over “Sentimental Value” star Stellan Skarsgård at the BAFTA Awards, which usually favor a more European sentiment, similar to the Golden Globes (where Skarsgård won). It is looking more and more like the Oscar voter consensus is leaning toward awarding a sole Academy Award to the Joachim Trier film in the Best International Feature category, as that is the only category where it does not have to worry “Sinners” or “One Battle After Another” (and, in the case of Best Actress, “Hamnet”).
Moving down the timeline, the next big triumph for a “Sinners” star was Wunmi Mosaku winning Best Supporting Actress at the BAFTA Awards on February 22, only a few days before final Oscar voting began. Similar to Lindo, her viability as a contender has really blossomed after Oscar nominations, since she had been snubbed by the Golden Globes, the ceremony that usually kicks off the season of televised award shows each year. Instead, “One Battle After Another” star Teyana Taylor had won, and for a long time was looking like she would be the only actor to win for their performance in the Paul Thomas Anderson film. Even lead Chase Infiniti did not end up earning an Oscar nomination after being recognized by every major precursor.
Though predictable, as the British Nigerian actress had won a BAFTA TV award before, and had been nominated for a BAFTA Film Award previously as well, the combination of Mosaku winning Best Supporting Actress and Penn winning Best Supporting Actor for “One Battle” really changed the trajectory of those two films campaigns for the acting races.
And sure, “Weapons” star Amy Madigan won the Actor Award, but she would’ve needed to be a lot more dominant this awards season to win as the sole nominee for her film. Her not making the cut with BAFTA nominations suggests the increasingly influential international sect of Academy voters have not even seen the Zach Cregger-helmed horror film. And “Weapons” not making it onto the Oscar shortlist for Best Makeup and Hairstyling, despite the distinctive look of her character Aunt Gladys, is another indication that she has always been fighting more of an uphill battle than many realize. I’d say the more likely scenario with Best Supporting Actress, should Mosaku lose, is the voters that are stateside taking things back to square one, and giving the Oscar to Taylor.
Jordan’s late-in-the-game triumph over expected Actor Award frontrunner Timothée Chalamet feels like the unequivocal turning point in the Best Actor race. Though things already did not look great for his “Marty Supreme” campaign post-BAFTAs, the person Chalamet lost to, “I Swear” star Robert Aramayo, wasn’t even eligible for the Academy Awards this year.
That is why Jordan winning over Chalamet at the Actor Awards is not akin to the latter’s late stage win at the same awards ceremony last year for “A Complete Unknown”; the momentum had already waned even earlier, and that is without even considering what type of comeback fellow Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura may make, as a contender that has really been pounding the pavement in a more palatable way. Consider the prophecy fulfilled on Chalamet being the new Leonardo DiCaprio, complete with him taking over a decade to finally win an Oscar.
Keep in mind as well that Jordan’s performance truly is impressive. The industry would be just as happy to see him win for the first time as it would Chalamet, and he would still be on the younger end of Best Actor winners. “Marty Supreme” is not predicted to be winning any of its other Oscar categories (though finally awarding legendary production designer Jack Fisk for his work on the Josh Safdie film would be inspired). So if the Actors branch presumably has Jordan’s back post Actor Awards, in addition to all the other branches like Casting and Music that are already set on honoring “Sinners” in their respective categories, then the 39-year-old movie star seems like the best answer to that question of which “Sinners” star will be awarded the Oscar.
But, again, this awards season has continually reminded me and all my peers to expect the unexpected.
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