Welcome back to a much higher-spirited edition of “You’re Nuts”, where two of our basketball writers pick a (typically) basketball-related topic and debate it to the death — or until we learn Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament fate, whichever comes first.
What a tone shift from one week ago, huh? Last week’s vibes were so incredibly low that the topic was, “Is this it for Ohio State?”
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The Buckeyes had just come off back-to-back road losses, with the second being a 17-point drubbing at the hands of Iowa. Ohio State was left to wither away on the periphery of the NCAA Tournament picture, but an upset-win over Purdue Sunday, followed by a clean spanking of Penn State in Happy Valley, has reinvigorated Ohio State’s March Madness dreams.
Ohio State is now projected as an 11-seed in the NCAA Tournament, according to Bracket Matrix. Some models have the Buckeyes as high as a 9 or 10-seed, but the consensus for now is that the Buckeyes will be competing in the First Four in Dayton.
Back to last week’s actual responses.
Connor said that Ohio State had one final push in them, which turned out to be true, although he was skeptical about their chances of beating Purdue. Justin said that this was likely it for the Buckeyes, because they would need to either upset Purdue or win several games in the Big Ten Tournament — neither of which sounded likely after watching that game in Iowa City on Wednesday night.
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This week, we’re looking at the Big Ten Tournament, which expanded this year to include all 18 of the conference’s teams and begins on Tuesday, March 10.
With a Big Ten record of 11-8 thus far, Ohio State is going to be the 7, 8, or 9-seed in the tournament. Before the season began, Ohio State was voted to finish ninth in the Big Ten in the unofficial Big Ten media preseason poll, conducted jointly by the Columbus Dispatch and the Indianapolis Star.
The Buckeyes were picked to finish eighth in the SB Nation preseason Big Ten media poll. So after a long, up and down season, the Buckeyes are going to finish right where they were predicted, if not a little ahead.
Everyone has their own strategic opinion on which tournament seed is the most advantageous for various reasons. This week, we’re picking one seed line for the Big Ten Tournament and explaining why earning that seed would be the most beneficial to Ohio State.
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Remember: only the 7-9 seeds are in play for Ohio State at this point.
This week’s question: Which Big Ten Tournament Seed would be most beneficial to Ohio State?
Connor: 7 seed
Earning the 7-seed feels like the best option for Ohio State for a few different reasons. First and foremost, the Buckeyes would not have to face top-seeded Michigan — the betting favorite to win not only the Big Ten Tournament, but also the NCAA Tournament — until the Big Ten championship game.
If they get the 8 or 9-seed, Ohio State would get a well-rested Michigan team in the quarterfinals, which is not ideal.
Second, if Ohio State was the 8 or 9-seed, there’s a decent chance they would have to face Iowa on Thursday regardless, because the Hawkeyes would likely take whichever of the two (8 or 9) the Buckeyes did not grab.
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Although it was on the road, Iowa did not look like a very good matchup for Ohio State. They struggled to guard Bennett Stirtz, got lost defensively far too often, and just in general looked like the far less prepared team. Perhaps Ohio State would clean it up in the rematch, but why run that risk if you don’t need to?
Third, getting the 7-seed would mean Ohio State’s first game would be against the winner of 10-seed Indiana and Penn State vs the 15-seed, which is likely to be Northwestern. So…. most likely the winner of Northwestern vs Indiana.
The result of Saturday’s game against the Hoosiers is still pending, but Ohio State should feel good about getting an Indiana team that will enter the Big Ten Tournament either 1-5 or 2-4 in its last six games, or a Northwestern team that it has already beaten this season.
Finally, Ohio State could just use the extra day of rest. If they can get the 7-seed, they will get four days to rest before their first game — the longest time off they’ve had since the gap between the Washington and UCLA games in January (five days).
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The team has various injuries they have been playing through. Fresh legs could be a big boost.
Justin: 9 seed
If we are being honest with ourselves, as long as Ohio State handles business on Saturday against Indiana, this should not be an issue and they are very likely in the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the Big Ten Tournament.
However, if they lose to Indiana, they would be either the eight or the nine seed in the Big Ten Tournament, and the obvious answer here is they would want to be nine seed. The eighth seed still gets the double bye, while the nine seed has to play the winner of the first round game of the No. 16 and No. 17 seeds.
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Right now, that is either Oregon or Maryland, two teams Ohio State beat handedly in the regular season. If they lose to Indiana, it would be beneficial for them to pick up at least one win in the conference tournament to get them to 20 overall wins — a mark that historically helps when getting into the 68 team field.
They are better than anyone they would play in that second round matchup, and should be an easy win to get another one in the books.
If you lose that game, you don’t deserve to play in the tournament anyway.
