The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Monday closed down -0.39%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +0.11%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.78%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) fell -0.43%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) fell -0.88%.
Stock indexes gave up an early advance on Monday and settled mixed, with the S&P 500 posting a 7.5-month low and the Nasdaq 100 posting a 7.75-month low. Concerns that a protracted war in the Middle East will derail economic growth weighed on stocks on Monday, along with a sell-off in chip stocks. Strength in software stocks kept the Dow Jones Industrial Average in positive territory.
Stock indexes initially moved higher on Monday as a decline in bond yields sparked some short covering. The 10-year T-note yield fell by -8 bp on Monday to 4.34%, amid fears that the war in the Middle East will lead to a fuel shortage that derails global economic growth, offsetting inflation fears and possibly keeping the Fed from raising interest rates. T-note yields also moved lower on Monday after Fed Chair Powell said inflation expectations are well anchored and that the FOMC will meet its 2% inflation goal. He added, “It’s too soon to know what the economic effects will be” from the Iran war.
The US Mar Dallas Fed manufacturing activity survey fell by -0.4 to -0.2, weaker than expectations of an increase to 2.0.
US and Israeli forces pressed ahead with attacks on Iran on Monday, while the UAE issued multiple alerts and Saudi Arabia and Kuwait reported numerous strikes by Iranian drones and missiles as the war in Iran entered its fifth week. The Washington Post on Monday said the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran, as about 3,500 sailors and Marines have arrived in the Middle East. President Trump told the Financial Times on Sunday that he wants to “take the oil in Iran” and could seize the export hub of Kharg Island, which would involve US ground troops and mark a major escalation of the conflict.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) rose more than +3% on Monday to a 3-week high. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas flows, has choked off oil and gas flows due to Iran’s attacks on shipping in the waterway and forced Gulf producers to cut output because they can’t export from the region. Iran is also seeking to control ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, asking vessels to provide lists of crew and cargo, along with voyage details and bills of lading if they want to travel through the waterway. Goldman Sachs warns that crude prices could exceed the 2008 record high of close to $150 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain depressed through March.
