The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is up +0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) is up +0.19%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is up +0.41%. June E-mini S&P futures (ESM26) are up +0.37%, and June E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQM26) are up +0.54%.
Stock indexes are pushing higher today, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting 1.5-week highs. Hopes for a potential ceasefire in the war in Iran are lifting stock prices today. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war. On Sunday, President Trump extended his previous 10-day deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz by 20 hours until Tuesday evening and threatened to unleash “all hell” on Iran if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened to all shipping traffic by Tuesday. However, Mr. Trump also said the US was in “deep negotiations” with Iran and “there is a good chance to make a deal, but if they don’t make a deal, I am blowing up everything over there.” However, the chances of a ceasefire appear doubtful after a spokesman for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said, “No rational person” would accept a ceasefire proposal.
Today’s US economic news was negative for stocks. The US Mar ISM services index fell -2.1 to 54.0, weaker than expectations of 54.9. The Mar ISM services prices paid subindex rose +7.7 to a 3.5-year high of 70.7, stronger than expectations of 67.0.
Stocks have carryover support from last Friday’s US economic news, which showed strength in the labor market. March nonfarm payrolls rose by +178,000, stronger than expectations of +65,000 and the largest increase in 15 months. Also, the March unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to 4.3%, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of no change at 4.4%. The markets were closed last Friday for the Good Friday holiday.
Crude oil prices (CLK26) remain volatile, with today’s trading fluctuating between gains and losses amid news headlines about Iran. Iran rejects a ceasefire and wants a permanent end to the war. US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets continued over the weekend, while Kuwait reported fires at some of its refining facilities after Iranian drone and missile attacks. Also, the UAE reported a petrochemical plant at Ruwais and the Habshan gas facility, the UAE’s largest natural gas processing facility, halted production following Iranian attacks. The New York Times, citing US intelligence reports, said Iranian personnel have been digging out underground missile bunkers and silos struck by US and Israeli bombs and returning them to operations hours after attacks. The International Energy Agency warned that even if the war were to end within a few weeks, it would still take time for normal flows through Hormuz to resume, as some energy infrastructure has been damaged and is facing lengthy repairs.
