Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
“Landman”
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series (Updated: April 9, 2026): The race for the dramatic leading men is just getting started, with lots of contenders, and plenty of potential records to be broken.
If Gary Oldman prevails for Apple TV’s “Slow Horses,” he would become the first Oscar winner (he won for playing Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour”) to claim lead acting prizes from both the Film Academy and the Television Academy for a comedy or drama series. Matthew McConaughey, who won the Oscar for “Dallas Buyers Club,” fell short of this possible feat with the first season of “True Detective.” And while Kieran Culkin won a lead drama actor Emmy for “Succession,” his Academy Award came in supporting actor for the film “A Real Pain.”
The Taylor Sheridan television universe remains one of the Emmys’ most conspicuous blind spots. Across six series and eight consecutive years, Sheridan’s shows have been shut out of major acting, writing and directing categories, despite high viewership and marquee names such as Kevin Costner, Helen Mirren, Harrison Ford and now, Billy Bob Thornton. Still, momentum may be shifting as Season 2 of “Landman” recently set a Paramount+ premiere record, signaling growing audience strength that could become harder for Emmy voters to ignore.
After finally breaking through last year, Noah Wyle is positioned for another lead actor bid with “The Pitt’s” sophomore season. Historically, repeat wins this early in a show’s run are rare with only Bryan Cranston (“Breaking Bad”), Daniel J. Travanti (“Hill Street Blues”), Bill Cosby (“I Spy”) and E. G. Marshall (“The Defenders”) having won lead drama actor Emmys for the first two seasons of their respective series.
The Emmy Awards timeline begins with nomination-round voting from June 11-22, with nominations announced on July 8. The final voting runs from Aug. 17-26, leading into the Creative Arts Awards and Governors Gala on Sept. 5–6, culminating with the Emmy Awards ceremony on Sept. 14 on NBC.
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