Updated inventory data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed that wholesale trade pulled private inventory investment lower, driving the revision downward. Growth was supported mainly by household spending and investment. Contractions in exports and government outlays weighed on the overall figure.
A federal government shutdown from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, 2025, subtracted an estimated 1 percentage point from real GDP growth, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The agency said the lapse in federal appropriations prevented the Bureau of Labor Statistics from collecting October consumer price index data, so the bureau had to impute price indexes for that month.
The third estimate, originally scheduled for March 27, was postponed because of the shutdown.
Private goods-producing industries contracted 1.8 percent, and the federal government’s contribution dropped 7.8 percent. Private services-producing industries grew 2.3 percent. Wholesale trade, information, and health care and social assistance were the leading contributors to industry growth.
Real GDP increased in 35 states. North Dakota, driven by agriculture, led with a 3.8 percent expansion. The District of Columbia — where federal civilian employment is concentrated — saw real GDP shrink by 8.3 percent, according to UPI.
Real gross domestic income rose 2.6 percent in the quarter, and the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.5 percent. Corporate profits from current production rose $246.9 billion, up from a $175.6 billion increase in the third quarter.
The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter. The core PCE index — which excludes food and energy — increased 2.7 percent. Both were unchanged from the prior estimate.
Annual real GDP for 2025 was 2.1 percent — steady with prior estimates but down from 2.8 percent in 2024, according to The Hill.
The advance estimate for first-quarter 2026 GDP is scheduled for release on April 30.
