Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei ostensibly released a defiant written statement on Wednesday, vowing to retaliate for the death of security chief Ali Larijani.
The Iranian regime still has offered no proof that Khamenei is alive, conscious, or dictating his own statements.
Khamenei is the son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening moments of the war. Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen since before the war began and there have been reports he was seriously injured by the same Israeli airstrike that killed his father.
On Monday, the UK Telegraph reported on leaked audio that purportedly featured an official in Khamenei’s office saying the new supreme leader escaped death by a matter of seconds but suffered “a minor injury to his leg.”
Until Wednesday, the new leader’s only communication with the outside world was a written statement read on television by an Iranian state media employee one week ago. His second alleged communique was a written message of condolences for Larijani, who was eliminated by an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday.
The message praised Larijani as a “learned, far-sighted, intelligent, and committed individual with diverse experiences in various political, military, security, cultural, and managerial arenas.”
“Undoubtedly, the assassination of such a person shows the extent of his importance and the hatred of the enemies of Islam towards him,” said the message attributed to Khamenei.
“The enemies of Islam should know that shedding this blood only makes the mighty tree of the Islamic system stronger, and of course, every drop of blood has its price, which the murderous killers of these martyrs will soon have to pay,” the message threatened.
Defense analyst Kobi Michael of the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute told Fox News on Wednesday that Mojtaba Khamenei remains an “empty entity,” with little actual control over the remnants of the regime, if he is even alive and conscious.
“Mojtaba Khamenei does not appear in public, but we also have reliable indications that he does not control or lead the regime or what has been left of the regime. The current Iranian leadership is broken, confused and is almost misfunctioning,” he said.
Michael credited the American and Israeli military with a “very successful and impressive effort” to decapitate the Iranian regime, and said that even if the Islamic Republic of Iran survives the war, it would not be able to “reconstitute itself and/or to become again a severe threat and a destabilizing player in the broader Middle East” for a long time to come.
“By weakening the regime and paralyzing its capacities generally speaking and its domestic control specifically, the U.S. and Israel are facilitating the required conditions for the Iranian people to topple the regime,” he said.
On the other hand, global security chair Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) told the Associated Press on Thursday that Iran’s government and military have proven to be “made up of several overlapping institutions that have so far survived waves of punishing U.S. and Israeli strikes.”
Other analysts cited the risk of the Iranian regime scoring a propaganda victory by merely surviving the devastating U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign and cautioned that Mojtaba Khamenei’s regime could prove to be more vicious toward the Iranian people than Ali Khamenei’s was.
“Leadership decapitation is risky. When you take out a leader that prefers some degree of restraint and had influence over subordinates, then there’s a very good chance that, upon that person’s death, you’re going to see even more extreme tactics,” warned Northeastern University political scientist Max Abrahms.
