The majority of Ontarians believe Doug Ford — who remains the number one pick for premier — is taking the province in the wrong direction, according to a new poll which still has the Progressive Conservatives comfortably ahead of opposition parties.
Polling conducted by Ipsos exclusively for Global News’ Focus Ontario reveals Ford and his party have broadly maintained the same popularity as they did during last year’s snap election.
The Progressive Conservatives’ support remains strong, even as the underlying numbers begin to soften.
Forty-two per cent of those polled said they would vote for the Progressive Conservatives if an election were to be held tomorrow, with 35 per cent decided or leaning Liberal. Another 18 per cent would cast their vote for the NDP and seven per cent would select another party, including the Greens.
That’s very close to the 2025 snap election, when the Progressive Conservatives pulled 43 per cent of the vote, the Liberals took 30 per cent and the NDP managed 19. The Greens scored five per cent last year.
The vast majority — 69 per cent — do not think Ford will step down as premier before the next election, which can be called anytime before 2029.
“The Liberals are up a little bit, but not really enough to affect who’s going to form the government, but maybe would affect who would form the official Opposition,” said Ipsos’ Global Public Affairs Global CEO Darrell Bricker.
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Approval ratings for party leaders tell a similar story. Forty-two per cent of people approve of Premier Ford, while 32 per cent approve of NDP Leader Marit Stiles, a significantly higher number than her overall party support.
Twenty-four per cent approve of interim Liberal leader John Fraser, and the Green Party’s Mike Schreiner has a 27 per cent approval rate.
“At the moment, people don’t really see an alternative,” Bricker said.
“If somebody’s able to start articulating this well on the opposition side of the house and … they’re seen as having a plan that would be better than the one the government has, that’s when the government starts running into trouble. But at the moment, that’s not the case.”
But it is the numbers that measure the province’s mood which could spell trouble for Ford and his Progressive Conservatives.
Ipsos found that 40 per cent of people believe the Ford government has done a good job and deserves re-election, compared to 60 per cent who believe it is time for another party to take over.
That reflects a seven per cent increase in the “time for change” metric since the February 2025 snap election.
“The important part is the 40 per cent that approve,” Bricker said.
“If you look at how that lines up with Doug Ford’s own personal approval and how people say they would vote if there were an election held tomorrow, it’s about the same number of 40. That’s the Doug Ford coalition, and it’s held pretty steadily since the election last year.”
Polling across a number of issues — from housing to the cost of living — also found the government is seen to be failing in its mission to “Protect Ontario.”
Bricker said dissatisfaction on individual topics, or even an increasing feeling there’s a need for change, don’t matter as much until there’s a clear opponent who could beat the premier.
“The gap closes if the opposition voters decide to unite behind one single party,” he said. “The other thing that we haven’t mentioned is the vote splitting is the thing that really benefits Doug Ford in any election scenario that you run into.”
Focus Ontario airs at 5:30 p.m. Saturday, March 21, at 5:30 p.m.
Methodology: A sample of 801 residents of Ontario aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population of Ontario according to census parameters. The poll is accurate to within ± 4.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Ontarians aged 18+ been polled.
© 2026 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
