On February 28, U.S. and Israeli forces launched Operation Epic Fury, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader and triggering a military response that has effectively shut down the world’s most critical energy corridor.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply and 30% of seaborne LNG flows every single day, is, for all practical purposes, closed.
Brent crude is now sitting above $100…
Qatar declared force majeure on its LNG exports, wiping out roughly 20% of global LNG supply in a single announcement…
Saudi Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery and export terminal has shut down….
And more than 200 vessels are anchored outside the Strait, unable to move.
So where’s the money going?
If you’re reading this and thinking about buying Big Oil or Lockheed, it’s already too late:
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Northrop Grumman is up nearly 7% in just a few weeks.
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Shell is up over 12% since mid-February.
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Lockheed Martin hit an all-time high of $676.
The first wave of buying opportunities has already happened. And now, we’re entering the second wave.
Not oil majors. Not defense primes.
Here we’re looking at the specific, physical bottlenecks this war created that most investors haven’t fully priced yet: energy, tanker routes, a rare gas the semiconductor industry can’t function without, a rare earth supply chain the Pentagon urgently needs, and the metal inside every missile and data centre being built right now.
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Venture Global (NASDAQ: VG)Â
Venture Global (VG) might just be the definition of ‘right place, right time.’
On March 2, VG reported Q4 2025 earnings: revenue up 192.8% year-over-year to $4.45 billion, EPS of $0.41 against a consensus of $0.35, adjusted EBITDA up 191% to $2 billion.
Strong numbers. But the stock didn’t move on earnings. Or after signing a binding five-year offtake deal with commodity trading giant Trafigura for 0.5 million tonnes per year starting in 2026.
It moved because, on the same morning, Qatar shut down Ras Laffan.
VG jumped nearly 17% in a single session, then another 9% on March 11 when QatarEnergy confirmed that the Ras Laffan shutdown would be indefinite, causing global gas prices to spike again and further increasing the value of VG’s uncontracted supply.
While Qatar is offline and spot LNG prices are at historic premiums, every cargo from Plaquemines is generating maximum margin.
Morningstar noted this mirrors exactly what happened when VG’s Calcasieu Pass facility came online during the Ukraine war… the company has a habit of timing its startups with global supply crises.