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The crazy part of the Outstanding Drama Series Emmy race this year is just how many contenders have already been nominated. There are eight nominee slots open, and about double the amount of options fit that already-been-nommed description, or fall into the smaller category of being a spinoff of a show that actually won the Drama Series Emmy (looking at you, “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” and “The Testaments”).
Every season is different, so this go-round I would say past nominees like “Bridgerton” and “The Boys” are trending upward, having firmly established themselves as mainstays in the craft categories, while shows like “Slow Horses” and “Squid Game” are trending downward, to the point where it’s hard to remember when their most recent seasons aired.
As far as what series are leading the race, look no further than HBO, which very well could break the record for most series nominations in a single season if reigning champ “The Pitt” counts toward five (technically, the Noah Wyle-led hospital drama is an HBO Max project). Given the track record of anything related to “Game of Thrones,” the very well-received “A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms” is likely to be one of the new additions to the category, as is critical darling “Task.”
The two HBO contenders that have a bit more of an uphill battle are “Euphoria,” which always draws a big audience of Emmys voters, but may have lost some of its shine in the four-year wait between seasons, and “Industry,” which finally broke containment in Season 4, but may not have caught the eye of enough voters. “The Gilded Age” is also still very much in the mix, but the former pair of shows could be lauded for being a bigger launchpad for new stars.
The most formidable challenger to “The Pitt” is once again a high concept science fiction series from Apple TV, but this time it’s from “Breaking Bad” creator Vince Gilligan. “Pluribus” had an even bigger audience than Apple TV’s previous most watched drama “Severance,” so it feels like at the very least it will finally win star Rhea Seehorn an Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series Emmy, after she had been overlooked time and time again for her breakout performance on “Better Call Saul,” another Gilligan production.
However, the equivalent of that award at the Actor Awards went to “The Diplomat” star Keri Russell, who has been consistently snubbed at the Emmys for an even longer period of time. If Netflix puts all its eggs into her basket, it may finally be her time, but “Euphoria” star Zendaya has twice overcome fellow nominees who had the same “it’s time” narrative. Her popularity among voters is not to be underestimated.
In the other drama categories, “The Pitt” remains strong, despite a perceived sophomore slump, The wider Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series race offers little competition to star Noah Wyle, who won just about every award he could win for his performance in Season 1. Some of the strongest scenes in Season 2, set during a particularly hectic July 4, also belong to returning Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series Emmy winner Katherine LaNasa. This time, though, with “The White Lotus” out of the way, she will definitely be nominated alongside some of her co-stars, like new cast member Sepideh Moafi.
The show’s success in the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series category is trickier to predict, as the women got better material on “The Pitt.” There is a shot in the dark that star Patrick Ball could still finally receive an Emmy nomination, and best two-time winner Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”). But prognosticators currently have their money on “Task” star Tom Pelphrey, who has steadily been building his resume year after year toward becoming the kind of actor that would convince you to watch any series just based on his involvement.
And “Euphoria” is a big wild card in the category. The rest of the season is still being finalized, so it is unclear if star Colman Domingo will submit for Supporting Actor, or the Guest Actor category he won for his role as Ali on the show in 2022. However, Jacob Elordi has always been a standout on the series as well, and is coming off of an Oscar nomination. And Adewale Akinnuoye-Agbaje has the showiest performance so far among the new additions to the already divisive Season 3.
See IndieWire’s full list of 2026 Emmy predictions, complete with frontrunners, contenders, and long shots on our website. As a reminder, my email is majones@indiewire.com if you’d like to share any feedback.
