Sen. Bill Cassidy’s (R-LA) reelection effort is under mounting pressure as Louisiana’s Republican Senate primary enters its final weeks, with the incumbent lashing out at GOP allies and facing the possibility of missing the runoff altogether in an increasingly volatile three-way race.
Just five weeks before Louisiana Republicans vote on May 16, Cassidy finds himself squeezed between Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming, the former congressman and founding member of the House Freedom Caucus.
According to Punchbowl News, Cassidy is “furious at the NRSC and Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s political machine because he feels they haven’t fully supported his reelection bid.” Although Thune raised more than $650,000 for Cassidy at a January event in Baton Rouge and the NRSC “has also cut video ads featuring Cassidy,” Cassidy still complained that the committee “wasn’t spending enough on his behalf during the primary.”
Punchbowl further reported that NRSC Executive Director Jennifer DeCasper, “in a response that included profanity,” told Cassidy he “shouldn’t have voted to convict Trump.”
That vote remains the central issue hanging over Cassidy’s campaign. In February 2021, Cassidy voted to convict Trump during the president’s second impeachment trial. He later said, “I voted to convict President Trump because he is guilty.” Cassidy subsequently argued in multiple interviews that Trump could not win another general election, said he would not support him in 2024, urged Trump to leave the race in 2023, and even signaled openness to a third-party No Labels effort.
Those comments left Cassidy deeply vulnerable in a Louisiana Republican primary, particularly after the state moved away from its old jungle-primary system and adopted closed Republican primaries beginning in 2024. Under the previous system, Cassidy could rely on support from independents, moderates, and Democrats. Now, only Republican voters will determine the outcome.
Politico reported that some Louisiana Republicans now see Cassidy as a politician without a natural political base. John Couvillon, a pollster working for Fleming, said, “Number one, you have a mistrust of Senator Cassidy amongst Republican based voters. Number two, since he does have a relatively Republican voting record, that doesn’t get him any great affections from Democrats either. So he’s kind of the proverbial man without a political country.”
Punchbowl News noted that it was highly unlikely any candidate would clear 50 percent in the May 16 primary, making a June runoff likely. Republican insiders told Punchbowl that all three candidates had a realistic chance of advancing, but many believed either Letlow or Fleming would defeat Cassidy in a head-to-head runoff.
Cassidy has heavily outspent Letlow and her allies. Punchbowl News reported that Cassidy and allied groups began the year with a collective $26 million in the bank, while Politico, citing AdImpact, reported that Cassidy’s campaign and the Louisiana Freedom Fund had poured more than $14 million into the race on ads, most of them attacking Julia Letlow. Those attacks have focused in part on Letlow’s past comments on diversity, equity, and inclusion and on her trading of defense-contractor stocks amid the war in Iran.
Cassidy has also faced attacks in the primary over his record on legislation tied to diversity and equity programs. The issue has centered on his support for four major bills that included federal diversity offices or equity requirements: The Fiscal Year 2021 National Defense Authorization Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Safer Communities Act.
